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  • Aug 3, 2026, 7:34 PM

    Okay I'm a teacher. So let me explain this to you in as simple a way as I can.

    Let's say I want to buy a cake. But not just any cake. A specialty cake for my nieces quinceañera. A cake like that costs at least $100 bucks. But I don't have $100 bucks. What do?

    Well, I could save up to buy the cake. But that might take a long time and by then her quinceañera would be long over and gone. I could go take out a loan for the $100 bucks. But I don't want to take out a loan because it might make my credit look bad to have that much debt. So what's the solution?

    Well if I'm particularly creative and not overburdened by an abundance of morality, the solution is easy. I make another me. A special me. A me designed for one purpose only - to saddle with debt.

    So I create another Lana. A legal fiction. Let's call her Twona. Twona's only purpose in life is to get a bunch of credit cards and then cakes for my niece's quinceañera. Twona gets a MasterCard and a Visa, and puts $50 on each. When the cake arrives, Twona gives me the cake, and keeps the debt. And if the IRS or the banks ever come calling asking pesky questions about how I managed to afford a special quinceañera cake, I can legally and truthfully tell them I do not have any quinceañera credit card debt.

    And you may be asking why the credit cards would do this. Why just give Twona those lines of credit, knowing that she was just going to buy a quinceañera cake with it. It's not like they can repossess a giant 5-tiered specially cake with "Congratulations Niece on Your Quinceañera" written on it in bright pink fluffy icing. No one would ever buy that from them. It's worthless as a repossessed asset. And the reason is that I signed an agreement with MasterCard and Visa saying that if they ever had to come collect on the debt, that I would pay them a certain amount of interest on the debt for the next 100 years.

    So let's recap.
    - I got: the cake, and no record of debt on my financial documents
    - Twona got: the debt
    - The credit agencies got: promise of residual income for the next century

    Congratulations, now you understand how all these enormous data center buildings in rural places are being funded. Just take the quinceañera numbers and multiply them by 10 orders of magnitude. Meta and Amazon and Oracle and the rest of the tech companies are set to invest almost a trillion dollars in AI buildout just this year alone. And none of it is going on their financial documents. Because technically, none of them have taken out any loans. The loans are being held by shell companies created specifically for this purpose, with names like (I am not making these up) Beignet and Sopaipilla. These shell companies own the debt. And in return, Meta gets to build a $27 Billion dollar specialty data center building in the middle of rural Louisiana. And then Beignet rents that building to Meta. Nobody except Meta will ever use that building. It exists for one purpose only. But legally, Meta does not carry the debt on constructing it. Beignet does.

    And the big burning question here is why. Why would Meta do this?

    The reason is because if Meta had that debt on its own books, $27 billion dollars of debt looks like exactly what it is - the biggest financial gamble in the history of modern finances. Bigger than the housing bubble of the late 2000s. Bigger than the dot-com bubble of the 1990s. Bigger even than the stock market bubble of the roaring 1920s. And we all know how well that one went.

    So what's the fallout here? Nobody knows. What I'm saying is that you, the public, are not getting the full story. It's being deliberately hidden from public view. But now that you know it exists, you know what to look out for. This is a bubble. And when it bursts, there will be almost no warning. And some people stand to lose everything.

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Replies

  • Aug 3, 2026, 7:43 PM

    @Lana I'm not sure I understand why Beignet is permitted the loan in the first place. A shell company has no record of being able to repay the debt. Or is it all a nudge-wink from the bank, knowing somehow they get money via Meta? Or is that the 100 years bit, where if this all fails Meta get to pay it back slowly via the high interest thing?

    I want to say I can't believe this is legal, but that's me being naive.

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  • Aug 3, 2026, 7:52 PM

    @tehstu permitted by who? This is a company that acts like a bank in almost every capacity. It writes loans, it owns assets. It collects on debts. But it is not a bank. It is not subject to FDIC regulations or any other federal regulatory body. From the perspective of the government, it's every bit as much a legal corporate entity as Meta is.

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  • Aug 3, 2026, 7:55 PM

    @Lana Ah I see, sorry, I wasn't following. I read it as Twona having essentially no assets or credit history but also somehow securing bank loans (or cards, in your example).

    I think I understand now, thank you!

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  • Aug 3, 2026, 9:50 PM

    @tehstu @Lana Twona has the asset of a rental agreement worth $X/year for many times the life of the asset it wants to buy.

    The loan comes from the magic of fractional reserve banking where governments have given privately owned banks the power to print money, backstopped by a government guarantee.

    When this lot busts we will all get to see exactly who provides the guarantee.

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  • Aug 3, 2026, 8:23 PM

    @Lana @tehstu I still don’t get it. Where is the liquid cash to pay for construction coming from? It’s not Meta or Google or Oracle - they don’t have that cash.

    Who is putting up the cash to buy materials, labour, fuel, power?

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  • Aug 4, 2026, 1:30 AM

    @jik @oneiros @Lana @tehstu I read this article this afternoon, which should scare the shit out of anyone that reads it.

    TL;DR: Private lending companies buying life insurance companies, then investing in people’s life insurance premiums in AI datacenters…. And when it all falls apart, state governments are left holding the bag.

    Edit: Duh. Here’s the article…

    prospect.org/2026/08/03/ai-bai

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  • Aug 3, 2026, 9:54 PM
    @Lana @tehstu My guess would be that the legal framework behind this - or the lack thereof - was settled only since the DOGE days of 2025. The idea there was to destroy regulatory oversight very quickly and put this into motion immediately before there was time for the courts to stop anything.
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  • Aug 3, 2026, 9:55 PM

    @Lana @tehstu wait, beignet (and similar companies) act as a bank? i thought they were the ones that were taking out loans, not doing the lending?
    (i'm also confused about why banks would offer these loans , surely they can see that the chance they are ever repaid is pretty low? or maybe i'm missing something and they would be repaid by some other means?)

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  • Aug 4, 2026, 1:27 AM

    @b @Lana @tehstu

    From reading the above i think the "bank" is not actually a bank. Rather the shell companies are selling bonds, so the real money is coming from the people who buy the bonds. Those might be banks, other companies, venture capitalists willing to take a chance, or most likely, ordinary people who have enough money to make some investments for their retirement accounts and don't realize what kind of financial shenanigans are being pulled here. So in the end, John Q Public is the one paying for everything and is the one who will lose all their money.

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  • Null Hypothesisnull_hypothesis@mas.to
    Aug 4, 2026, 5:51 AM

    @moriel @b @Lana @tehstu
    I think the term “pushing paper” is appropriate here. Made up entities with imaginary value.

    Just people trying to sell other people stories. An IOU (what is is worth?)

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  • Jacenthejacenallen@mastodon.social
    Aug 3, 2026, 10:42 PM

    @Lana @tehstu im not well versed on these things. Can a company like that exist without fall guys? Meaning dont they have employees? Idk but it shouldn’t be legal for a “business” to operate with zero employees/fall guys. And hence no one to *eventually* tell all about the various crimes.

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  • D. G. Marshalldavidtheeviloverlord@mastodon.social
    Aug 4, 2026, 6:26 AM

    @Lana @thejacenallen @tehstu

    Here, a company has to have directors. Some directors are paying homeless people to sign themselves up as directors i.e. fall guys.

    Guess who finds themselves owning a company with $1 in assets and $10 million in debts?

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  • Aug 4, 2026, 7:38 AM

    @thejacenallen @Lana @tehstu

    beignet IS the fall guy. If Meta stops paying, but has through the shell ompany siphoned all assets out to say Deignet.

    Then Beignet falls, no one to pay back the money, no assets, banks left looking stupid, interest rates rise, stock prices collapse, those on the know got out months before.

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  • Aug 3, 2026, 9:35 PM

    hey @JEmphatically if you ever want to give someone an accurate understandable precis of datacentre debt offloading through an example, there's this 👆

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  • Aug 3, 2026, 9:48 PM

    @Lana So isn't there a liability that is shown on your/the company's books, whether current or future?

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  • Aug 4, 2026, 9:09 AM

    That's going to depend on this bit: "I signed an agreement with MasterCard and Visa saying that if they ever had to come collect on the debt, that I would pay them a certain amount of interest on the debt for the next 100 years."
    From an accounting point of view, this would need to be declared as a liability if and when it becomes "reasonably likely" that Lana#1 is going to have to make the payments. That said, and memory may fail me here, but IIRC, it is the size of the repayments that needs to be declared, not the debt itself, and maybe fair enough. Because Lana#1's exposure is the repayments, not the capital.

    @tassiedi @Lana

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  • Aug 3, 2026, 10:34 PM

    @Lana All it will take is one big player to fold like Lehman Brothers did in 2008, and the whole house of cards will come crashing down. It'll be carnage. At least in 2006/2007, it wasn't 👉🏼irrational👈🏼 to not see the crisis coming. Only a few dozen noted macroeconomists predicted it.

    But this time there's such a vast misallocation of capital, even Goldman Sachs is talking openly about expenditures being unlikely to generate matching long-term returns.

    Analysts everywhere are expecting this one.

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  • Aug 4, 2026, 2:10 AM

    @ApostateEnglishman @Lana It was irrational then too. And I know that because I bought a house, refinanced a mortgage, and then sold the house one month before the bubble popped, and my timing was based entirely on NYT & other's articles about how there was no way these mortgages weren't a bubble. We knew then the same way we know now. But the same now as then is that the people who made those loans think they're going to get out before the pop and leave us holding the string on a limp balloon.

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  • Aug 4, 2026, 2:25 AM

    @Wyatt_H_Knott @Lana We also put our home on the market in 2006 and sold in 2007, moving to a much sought-after school catchment area to avoid being plunged into negative equity. Which turned out to be a smart move. I was reading New Keynesian thinkers such as Krugman, Roubini and Stiglitz at the time.

    But there wasn't nearly as much doomsaying in those years. There was an entrenched belief that risk was spread widely enough by "securitization" that mass defaults couldn't cause a global crisis.

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  • Aug 4, 2026, 2:29 AM

    @ApostateEnglishman @Lana Yep, I was reading the same people. But I was also looking at a pool of engineers that I worked with who were refinancing over and over, a housing market where prices were shooting up impossibly fast... and then a cousin I had never spoken to called me and tried to get me to invest in mortage securities. Which, as soon as I realized they were securitizing mortgages, my thought was of all those refis which the engineers were using to finance college eds for their kids...

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  • Aug 4, 2026, 2:33 AM

    @ApostateEnglishman @Lana and second homes and BOATS, and I was like, wait, this doesn't make sense.

    I will say I felt like a bit of a fortuneteller for seeing it coming, but that was also accompanied by a strong sense of disbelief that no one else had - all the signs were there, they WERE writing articles about it, and the educated technical class, at least, should have seen it coming.

    Just like now.

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  • Aug 4, 2026, 1:27 PM

    @Wyatt_H_Knott @ApostateEnglishman @Lana

    More broadly: it's easy to see that a crash is coming. It's hard to see when a crash is coming. And there's a lot of money to be made right up until the point where the crash happens.

    If two people guess the bubble will burst before it does, the one who guessed later will make more money.

    Beyond that, a lot of people are playing with 'the house's money'. Imagine you saw the bubble coming in early 2016. You put $10 M into NVIDIA. By late 2016, it was worth $20 M. So you sell half of it and put that in safe investments. Now you have $10M in NVIDIA, but if NVIDIA goes completely bankrupt, you don't actually lose anything. By 2024, you remaining NVIDIA investment is worth $700 M. So maybe you start to get nervous about the bubble and you sell half of it. Now you have made a $350 M profit. But you still own $350 M of NVIDIA shares. Today, it's worth about $520 M. Do you sell it? Maybe. But you've already made $350 M, so maybe you just let it ride: even if the bubble bursts so spectacularly that NVIDIA's entire value is wiped out, you're up $350 M on your initial $10 M investment, so what do you care if the entire economy collapse? And, from the stock market's perspective, you believe in NVIDIA enough to invest half a billion in them, which shows strong investor confidence.

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  • Aug 4, 2026, 12:11 AM

    @Lana, okay, highly poppable bubble company to hold the debt and have others pay… but I have absolutely no idea what a “quinceañera” is; I only know that it sounds Spanish.

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  • Aug 4, 2026, 6:15 AM

    @Lana ok when this fails, it will destroy value all over the world. So how can I protect my retirement savings? Buy a house which is now overpriced and will then be half in value? Or buy stocks which will then lose value? Or keep it under the pillow and it gets devalued by inflation? It seems this will hurt normal people tremendously. While billionaires will be safe.

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  • Aug 4, 2026, 7:48 AM

    @prefec2 The best answers I've come up with thinking about this for myself:

    1) Yeah, money may end up not being worth much for some period of time, so I'm thinking about the *things* I need to survive physically and buy what I can of that. Eg a house to live in - I'm luckily already mortgage free, and it comes with a garden I can grow some food in though not all food groups - my next big addressable item is to get solar power with a battery system.

    2) Make/retain connections with friends/family/others, so when things go south we can support each other. Even if we all end up on the streets, I figure it's better to be on the streets with friends and family than to be on the streets alone.

    3) Do what I can to resist the erosion of and/or rebuild social safety nets. Whether that's voting, or pressuring politicians on key bills, or donating to charities, or volunteering time, or whatever.

    I think it's going to suck regardless but I'm also determined that any little bit we do to lessen the suckage, for ourselves or for others, is a victory against the sheer despair the billionaires want us to fall into.

    @Lana

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  • Aug 4, 2026, 1:42 PM

    @zeborah @prefec2 @Lana And however this plays out, those are good choices. Having a garden that supplies even part of your food is amazing (although I'm getting tired of pattypan squash this summer).

    Solar+batteries goes a *long* way to being autonomous and is a good idea since every watt produced and consumed this way is fossil fuel not burnt. Not perfect by any means but certainly better.

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  • D. G. Marshalldavidtheeviloverlord@mastodon.social
    Aug 4, 2026, 6:23 AM

    @Lana

    And then they can do something that companies* do here in Australia: the assets of the company are sold to a "new" company for $1. The debtors now have to try getting all that debt back from a company that's only worth $1.

    * The latest "company" to pull this here? The Christian Brothers, facing millions in payouts over historic child sexual abuse, sold all their schools and properties to another Catholic "company" for a few dollars.

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  • Aug 4, 2026, 7:23 AM

    @Lana

    I agree the bubble at some point will burst, people are starting to understand what AI can do and can't do in relation to the hype, Ford motor company have gone back to employing human engineers as they can do the job better. But there are other example and the fact Open AI etc have gone rogue will send jitters in to people.

    I think the tide is slowly turning.

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  • Famusernomnomnom@mastodon.social
    Aug 4, 2026, 9:46 AM

    @Lana My guess is that the fallout will be high levels of inflation for the forseeable and unforeseeable future

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  • Aug 4, 2026, 10:38 AM

    @Lana And as @JustinDerrick noted, there is ways to capture life insurance companies, which are publicly backed, and let them take the fall.

    These kind of dealings resemble those of SpaceX. The investor class has interests to IPO their investment vehicles, knowing full well that large institutional investor are locked in to buying up new stocks in certain indexes.

    And that kind of money has no issues with buying policies. Predatory capitalism is the right word I think.

    prospect.org/2026/08/03/ai-bai

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  • Aug 4, 2026, 12:17 PM

    @Lana@beige.party

    OK, so SPV no longer means Spectrum Pursuit Vehicle; got it.

    Put another way, steal up to a million in any currency - you're the worst criminal ever.
    Steal millions - you're a plucky entrepreneur; if you're a Brit you can expect anything from a knighthood to a life peerage.

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  • LappenjammerLappenjammerDieZweite@vivaldi.net
    Aug 4, 2026, 1:33 PM

    @Lana Quite off topic, but I didn't know quinceañera was a thing and even such an important one in many cases.

    So you taught me something beyond AI too.

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  • Aug 4, 2026, 1:37 PM

    @Lana Great write up! I'm unclear on why the credit card companies in your analogy would agree to residuals.

    Stepping away from the analogy my understanding is that the loans are being advanced by Google/Oracle, so they have to take the residuals or get swept away with the tide?

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