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  • Jun 20, 2025, 10:05 AM

    It's glaringly obviously so—at least to me: I've been around long enough to remember the first dot-com boom at first hand, plus various property bubbles, the credit default swap bubble, the original bitcoin bubble, and so on.

    After a while you learn to recognize a new market bubble on sight. Unfortunately that learning time can be 30 years ... so youngsters ALWAYS think "this time it's going to be different."
    circumstances.run/@davidgerard

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  • Jun 20, 2025, 2:23 PM

    @Dialectician @jmax @cstross

    This one... This one feels different. In the past the dirt ags in question were fuc-bos like Dubya, Cheney... People who essentially wanted the American economic system to exist when they were done taking from it.

    Trump, Musk, Theil... They all have too many ties to BRICS. The amount of US sovereign wealth/debt they want to collateralize into crypto. I don't think this is going to be like the derivatives bubble or the rest before it. This has all the trappings of a controlled demolition of the $US and our place as a clearing house for global trade. Too many damn ruZZians keep showing up in DOGE and Trump's administration. It stinks to hell and back.

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  • Jun 20, 2025, 2:37 PM

    @OvertonDoors @jmax @cstross And lurking behind it all, are the new face of fascist ultras; the transhumanists. Their sado-maschistic tech fantasies, are not unlike the SF ideas of the Borg and Ori; a total surrender to the mindless normalisation of extreme terror and violence. Their information overload is literally a reflexive logic bomb. Transcending their LLM bible of biblical abstraction, the implosion of their deluded super egos is as close to a certainty as is.

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  • Jun 21, 2025, 2:47 PM

    @Dialectician @OvertonDoors @jmax @cstross I've heard these transhumanists complaints before, and I'm quite confused. How does inhumane tech bro cultists equate to a genre ( often progressive) of pushing the physical and existential limits of humanity?

    Not denying, just expressing my confusion. On issues of sexual preference, gender identity, gender equality, accepting non-human intelligences as "people", and general tolerance I've always seen transhumanism as good. What am I missing?

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  • Jun 21, 2025, 3:52 PM

    @swiftone @Dialectician @OvertonDoors @jmax You're missing a hard turn towards the far right in the past 5-10 years, catalysed by mega-rich techbros adapting transhumanist ideas to suit their own emotional needs. Much as 2016's US election outcome suddenly gave a bunch of libertarians a license to turn into outright nazis, and 9/11 made islamophobia socially acceptable again. Original transhumanism was *relatively* innocuous, but some time after the dot com bust in 2001 it turned toxic.

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  • Jun 21, 2025, 8:23 PM

    @cstross @Dialectician @OvertonDoors @jmax Thank you, I had missed that turn, co-opting makes a lot of unfortunate sense.

    Is there another term now for the original, or are we just stuck with the confusion, as with the evolution of "meme" and "literally"?

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  • Jun 20, 2025, 12:49 PM

    @jmax @cstross Good is a but strong, but there's certainly an inevitability about them. I don't want to be one of those annoying twerps who says "because capitalism" as the answer to everything but bubbles really do seem to be inherent in a system that relies on people always seeking higher returns on the basis of imperfect knowledge.

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  • Jun 20, 2025, 1:34 PM

    @jmax @cstross Remember, "capitalism" doesn't mean free markets or fair commerce as an operating principle: it means the big investors (the holders of "capital" in capital-ism) make the laws (through lobbying, corruption, etc).

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  • Jun 21, 2025, 2:32 PM

    @spacehobo @jmax @cstross This. I vaguely thought of capitalism as currency, but capitalism is only a few hundred years old while currency is thousands of years old.

    Capital as authority isn't some unintended side effect, it's the defining quality. All the gross abuse we hate isn't a failing of capitalism, it's "success".

    This was an absolutely mindblowing revelation for me; The fact that it wasn't obvious speaks to either my obliviousness or the effectiveness of propaganda.

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  • Jun 21, 2025, 3:40 AM

    @jmax @cstross

    the oligarchs who are in early and are riding the bubble think it's a good idea

    then you have the wannabes who think they are riding the bubble, but bought in late and are the ones who are going to go under but don't know it

    the desperate gamblers. the ones who think capitalism is their personality and a religion

    and there's a lot of them

    then there's the rest of us, who know it's a pile of shit, and wondering when it means we're going to lose our job/ house

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  • Jun 20, 2025, 10:20 AM

    @cstross reading through that thread brought to mind an analogy, ChatGPT and LLMs as a ouija board, where we're all kidding ourselves that these are messages coming in from "the other side" but there's nothing actually there and all we're getting is a response based on a consensus of what a response "should" look like.

    While also destroying the environment, obviously.

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  • Jun 20, 2025, 11:00 AM

    @cstross @davidgerard I keep wondering about what’ll happen when this one pops.

    The other bubbles you mentioned left something tangible behind:

    The original Dotcom bubble resulted in a bunch of local haul fiber optic transmission systems being sold at distressed asset prices, yielding (eg) Level3 Communications as a global connectivity wholesaler.

    Property bubbles leave the property behind, maybe with some people who couldn’t afford homes finding themselves in the right place at the right time to buy one at bankruptcy auction prices.

    When someone loses their shirt, it isn’t usually set on fire; They’ve lost it because they’ve been forced to sell it below-cost, which means the counterparty is buying it below-cost. Cheap shirt!

    The LLM bubble seems different, though. The only thing that makes the products of AI companies look feasible is that VC inflows mean they can be sold cheaper than the replacement cost of GPUs and the electricity cost needed to power the datacentres the LLMs live in. If the VC money retreats none of this will be viable.

    Who’d buy an AI coding assistant or a personal agent or whatever if its API cost $100 per day? Or $1000 per day? If there isn’t a profit stream to keep GPT-4 or Claude running, what happens to applications using the GPT or Claude APIs?

    There’s a pretty good chance that when this bubble pops, there’ll be nothing left. At all. Quite different from other bubbles!

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  • Jun 20, 2025, 11:17 AM

    @benji_w @cstross @davidgerard Sure, enormous building full of power hungry single-purpose GPUs that are too expensive to run. I guess if it sells cheaply enough at the bankruptcy auction you could bulldoze it and redevelop the land for housing, right?

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  • Jun 20, 2025, 1:46 PM

    @NewtonMark @benji_w @cstross @davidgerard

    They're not really single purpose though, or at least not that narrowly single purpose. ML has existed before LLMs and there will still be useful ML models after the LLM hype wave passes and the cheap GPU capacity will probably lead to a lot of development of more focused and proven useful models. Sure it's expensive to run all the GPUs 24/7 but they don't need to, they can just have high burst capacity.

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  • Jun 20, 2025, 11:34 AM

    @NewtonMark @davidgerard There's another type of bubble that leaves nothing behind: a Ponzi scheme (and other scams).

    It can be hard to tell a scam from a bubble, until you look at the underlying assets. The AI bubble, however, smells about 80% of scam and 18% of wishful thinking (with 2% "breakthrough in assisted diagnostic imaging" on the side). So it'll crash harder and further than most of the current century's previous bubbles.

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  • Jun 20, 2025, 11:38 AM

    @cstross @davidgerard It’s so hard to reliably tell the difference between malfeasance and stupidity. The fact that so many of the LLM people used to be crypto people suggests scamminess, but my spidey sense also says Altman isn’t really as clever as he’s made out to be and he might actually be genuinely stupid.

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  • Jun 20, 2025, 11:43 AM

    @NewtonMark @davidgerard Criminology tells us that many—probably most—deliberate (non-impulse) criminals think they're smarter than they actually are: they do crimes because they think they've discovered a shortcut to wealth, having overlooked the drawbacks. Stealing cash from the till without noticing the CCTV cameras watching it.

    Altman strikes me as being of that ilk.

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  • Jun 20, 2025, 11:51 AM

    @cstross @davidgerard Hmm. That tracks. Like a corrupt politician who’s seemingly unaware that that bribe they thought they’d got away with will actually be investigated, even if it takes ten years.

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  • Jun 20, 2025, 4:08 PM

    @NewtonMark @cstross Altman is smart in particular ways. Important to note that as far as I can tell he *hasn't lied to his investors* yet:

    * we have no path to revenue
    * we have no plan to revenue
    * treat this as a donation
    * also we might build AI GOD, but that's a forward-looking statement you understand

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  • Jun 20, 2025, 12:56 PM

    @NewtonMark @cstross @davidgerard I suspect the 'damage' done to copyright will be a lasting effect. If the bubble can push through laws that weaken copyright to allow training of LLMs on piles of pirated books and academic papers, perhaps actually public goods like the Internet Archive and arxiv and scihub can benefit.

    Of course, it's still possible for us to end up with /worse/ copyright regimes that only let the biggest AI players benefit from the knowledge commons while keeping it locked away from the rest of us, but I can dream at least.

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  • Jun 20, 2025, 2:25 PM

    @NewtonMark @cstross @davidgerard

    if the constant stream of "here's my profitable new startup that I vibe coded in a week" posts is any indicator there will be *some* useful software services whose codebases are giant labyrinths of generated code, and some of them will be making enough money to hire a human to go in and start hacking away; there's probably going to also be a lot of generated code in any huge, ongoing projects like Adobe's stuff - I would be *very* surprised to learn their push towards AI features in the past few years hasn't also involved a bunch of vibe coding.

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  • Jun 20, 2025, 11:00 AM

    @cstross

    This tech IS good at surveillance and deception though. It can't replace people but it can politically paralyze them.

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  • Jun 20, 2025, 12:07 PM

    @cstross Mandates that employees figure out how to incorporate AI into whatever they’re doing are mostly coming from leadership, who have been swayed by the bubble salespeople. Same as they were told to incorporate blockchain 5 years ago.

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  • Jun 20, 2025, 12:21 PM

    @cstross Like with most scams, it's all about getting out with your gains and making sure you're not the one holding the bag when it falls apart.

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  • Jun 20, 2025, 12:31 PM

    @cstross

    “But the most absurd & preposterous of all… was one started by an unknown adventurer, entitled ‘A company for carrying on an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is’”
    —Charles Mackay (1814–1889) on the South Sea Bubble, in his book Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds (1841)

    And then Mackay became a cheerleader for the 1840s Railway Mania stock bubble, because “this time it’s going to be different”

    History, doom, etc.

    papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf

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  • Jun 20, 2025, 12:53 PM

    @cstross there have been a lot of bellicose takes about the lack of “thereness” in the AI hype circuit. The vast majority seem to subscribe to this exact “all these people are stupid for believing this, and I’m smart because I don’t buy it” tone. It underscores a disappointing and in your case surprising lack of empathy and intellectual curiosity.

    It may seem clever to invoke the dot-com (I was also there) and housing market bubbles. These examples aren’t making the point you think they are.

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  • Jun 20, 2025, 5:54 PM

    @cstross It was in the 1970s that the world first hit the global growth limits. This led to the rise of Neoliberalism, and ever since, one bubble after another to provide the "growth" needed by Capitalism to survive. Now that the bubbles are coming to an end, they're implementing various types of Fascism all over the planet so the rich and powerful can stay wealthy and on top of us just a little longer.

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  • Jun 20, 2025, 6:09 PM

    @LordCaramac That's such a wrong-headed analysis I barely know where to start. (Although you get points for nailing the mid-70s; that's when the convergence of monetarism, the shock doctrine, and rational choice theory came together to produce the hellbrew of now-extant capitalism. The seeds go back to the 1930s backlash against the post-depression accommodations ruling classes made to head off socialism, which in turn goes back to the 1840s ...)

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  • Jun 20, 2025, 8:53 PM

    @cstross Of course neoliberalism was just the backlash against the welfare state and against Keynesianism, but Keynesianism didn't work anymore in the 1970s because you can't stimulate your way out of a stagflation triggered by a global oil crisis, which is what allowed the neolibs to gain ground until they were ready to take over the political landscape in the 1980s, with even former social democratic parties like the SPD in Germany and Labour in the UK infested with that horrible ideology masquerading as economic science.

    Capitalism has always been unsustainable. However, for a very long time it was possible to grow the real global economy, to use more and more power and raw materials to produce more goods and provide more services. In the 1970s, many people in the world began to realise that this wasn't going to go on forever, that at some time within the following decades, any kind of economic growth would become utterly impossible. However, neoliberals managed to disguise their ideology as science and teach a generation of graduates that the free market will save the world. The end of the stagflation period was all they needed for propaganda. They had Reagan and Thatcher as their global champions while the Soviet Union had half-dead gerontocrats.

    It isn't going to get any better since the global economy is bound to shrink dramatically, one way or another. I can't think of any way we can get out of this without some kind of collapse of the economy anymore. Neoliberal systems breed fascists, fascism is the emergency mode of crapitalism. But fascist systems are about as unsustainable as states get; if they manage not to lose any wars, such a dictatorship might last a few decades, but then the dictator dies, and whatever happens next, the old system is unlikely to survive--unless it isn't even fascist anymore but a true monarchy, in which case, the heir will take the throne, like in North Korea where we have the Kim dynasty.

    Growth is never coming back because we have destabilised the Earth's systems to a point where it will take millions of years to get back to what used to be "normal" in the 20th century. While bubble economies built on nothing but hopes and lies did exist before the 1970s, it seems like all the net growth of the world economy in the past few decades wouldn't have happened at all if there hadn't been any bubbles providing lots of crazy money again and again. At some point, growth just ends forever, but many people still won't believe it as long as the occasional bubble can conjure an illusion of growth for a while, but in the end, even that will fail. I'm curious to see what will happen when people all over the world see the collapse of the capitalist economy and lose all faith in money and markets.

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  • Jun 20, 2025, 6:46 PM

    @cstross This bubble has one extra element which is going to make it even more annoying when it pops:

    There's essentially a religion that believes in building a messiah which may be an anti-messiah(which needs to be enslaved) that will bring along a rapture that will, for the select few, bring about immortality and total domination of all the universe, so the problems and people here and now don't matter. Investing in this religion brings you into the select few.

    That bubble will go boom, but bubble fragments will be left around for a long time.

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  • Jun 20, 2025, 6:50 PM

    @MakeAppPie You're describing TESCREAL, the mess of interlocking quasi-cults that are fermenting a new god-free/jesus-free religion that is isomorphic with a christian/prosperity gospel heresy centered on AI.

    Yes, I'm familiar with it. (One of the two novels I'm working on right now is all about its long-term implocations.)

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  • Jun 20, 2025, 7:26 PM

    @cstross Yes and a) I cant spell TESCREAL. b) Unless you are following a small set of AI critics, most people don't know what the term means and this is a public forum. So I'm glad you are writing a novel about it. it needs a lot more public attention and ridicule, which in my mind it needs a lot more ridicule. C) I'm a guy who gave up on being a theologian so I like to describe things in theological terms.

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  • Jun 20, 2025, 7:51 PM

    @MakeAppPie I'm an SF writer and I'm fascinated by recurring social patterns. So my take is: what if there is no GAI, no singularity, no mind uploading ... but it forms a highly attractive evangelical belief system that's the design pattern for future religions? Then we go colonize space: whackiness ensues (there are a lot of holy wars) ...

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  • Jun 20, 2025, 8:15 PM

    @cstross Cool idea! implocations indeed. Of course there are holy wars. It won't take to colonize space before the holy wars ensue -- There was already one around Sam Altman. Okay, a tussle.

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  • Jun 20, 2025, 8:18 PM

    @MakeAppPie But take it a LOT further. Christianity provides a basic template and there are forks of it and other religions that did an embrace-and-extend on on it—islam, the mormons, others.

    TESCREAL provides a similar template, only with rebased assumptions about how to build an afterlife.

    Now try to imagine a galaxy where there are any number of post-TESCREAL crusades running, where Roko's Basilisk has evangelical cults spreading the bad news, and so on ...

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  • Jun 22, 2025, 9:44 PM

    @cstross @davidgerard And unfortunately, it's irritatingly hard to know when the bloody bubble is going to *pop*.

    I vividly remember sitting out both the rise and fall of the dotcom bubble -- being a bit sad about missing all the enormous gains, but reasonably content when it all fell to earth. I expect the same will be largely true this time around.

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  • Jun 22, 2025, 9:55 PM

    @jducoeur @cstross

    1. Stupid things can go on much longer than they should.
    2. Stupid things funded by a not-technically-a-Ponzi scheme can go on even longer than that.

    I am pretty sure the AI bubble is in the second class. The VCs are Enronning frantically, throwing around billions in book values and trying desperately not to require actual cash dollars.

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