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  • 2 Spoopy 4 Youjcrabapple
    Jul 23, 2026, 11:06 PM

    🔋 MIT just published the most comprehensive EV emissions study yet, analyzing every US zip code with real driving data.

    Battery EVs cut lifetime emissions 40-60% vs gas cars in most locations. Even on the dirtiest grid in the country, they still come out ahead. The study used DOE's GREET lifecycle model, which already includes battery manufacturing. So the "but what about making the batteries?" question is answered: building an EV produces 50-80% more CO2 upfront, but it pays that back over the vehicle's life.

    Your driving habits matter as much as where you live. High mileage, city driving, and larger vehicles all boost the EV advantage. Cold weather cuts efficiency on a frigid night but barely dents annual savings.

    The "who benefits from the doubt?" question has a paper trail. The API has run anti-EV messaging since 1967. Koch-funded groups planned $10M/year campaigns. AFPM dropped $10M+ on "Don't Ban Our Cars" ads in 2024 swing states.

    news.mit.edu/2026/us-drivers-e

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Replies

  • Su_GSu_G@aus.social
    Jul 24, 2026, 12:39 AM

    @jcrabapple
    A really interesting study! Love it that they looked at the "who benefits from the doubt?" question & followed the paper trail to provide answers that will surprise no one here… 🤔🙏🏻

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  • Ron Martin-Siebler ZHOUrongzhou@universites.social
    Jul 24, 2026, 4:34 AM

    @jcrabapple Thanks for the update! Here at my faculty we have this conversation like A LOT. Would make sure to save this ref# for a future about the batteries. Would say still it's better if more people ride bicycles (zero emission vs something), but seems like EV is still making a dent!

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  • Edwardyugthebug@mastodon.social
    Jul 24, 2026, 6:25 AM

    @jcrabapple
    I'm still anti ev but that's because I'm anti vehicle unless you really need it, don't buy an ev if you have a working petrol car you only occasionally use.

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  • Kevin Boyd (he/him) 🇨🇦kboyd@phpc.social
    Jul 24, 2026, 4:01 PM

    @yugthebug @jcrabapple Right - we don't need to be telling people to "get an EV", that's doing the car companies' work for them. It's more like "if you _have_ to get a car, go electric if you can."

    "Get an e-bike", though, that's a good one. "Take transit", that's good too.

    That said, I have to buy a family car in the next little bit to replace our aging ICE contraption (a Ford Escape). Somewhat of a necessity where we are; but, I plan to go EV, or at worst, PHEV. Used, not new.

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  • Ben Rosengartfivetonsflax@tilde.zone
    Jul 24, 2026, 5:51 PM

    @kboyd @yugthebug @jcrabapple I’m like you, a reluctant car haver who prefers transit. I bought a used BMW i3, which has weak range for anything but city driving (120 miles, give or take) but is otherwise brilliant.

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  • Daniel Brotherstondanbrotherston@types.pl
    Jul 24, 2026, 6:36 AM

    @jcrabapple I really wish our media was less complicit and more to the point.

    Headlines like:

    "These groups are lying to you to keep you dependent on expensive gas for their financial benefit"

    Should be running nation wide. If these papers worked for the people, it wouldn't even be controversial.

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  • Ben Rosengartfivetonsflax@tilde.zone
    Jul 24, 2026, 5:43 PM

    @michal I don’t understand why it would be a yearly amount. The battery is only produced once. Are they working backwards from a presumed max car lifetime or something like that?

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  • Ben Rosengartfivetonsflax@tilde.zone
    Jul 24, 2026, 6:24 PM

    @michal I get that. What I’m asking is, the battery is produced only once, so why would the payoff distance be a _yearly_ number?

    The only way I can make it make sense, is if they’re assuming a car will be off the road after X years, so they’re dividing the payoff distance by X and calling it a yearly amount.

    It seems weird to me because car lifetimes are commonly measured in distance driven rather than years.

    Is that clearer?

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  • Paul_stilgarPaul_stilgar@mastodon.social
    Jul 24, 2026, 11:05 AM

    @jcrabapple

    Nothing replaces the test of the garage .

    Put an ev in a closed garage , stay inside and start it .
    Wait 10 mins
    Put an ice car in a closed garage , stay inside and start it .
    Wait 10 mins . Huh forget the next test.

    #ev

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  • Baloo UrizaBalooUriza@social.tulsa.ok.us
    Jul 24, 2026, 5:11 PM

    @jcrabapple Still a step down from public transportation as EVs are still loud, still take up space to park, and still contribute to traffic congestion.

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  • Ben Rosengartfivetonsflax@tilde.zone
    Jul 24, 2026, 5:45 PM

    @BalooUriza @jcrabapple Agreed, though I don’t understand why you say they’re loud — in my experience, they’re much quieter than internal combustion cars. Am I missing something?

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  • Joseph A di Paolantoniojadp@mastodon.social
    Jul 24, 2026, 10:43 PM

    @todd @jcrabapple @timbray From the original paper, the study uses data/model including fuel production “The GHG emission coefficients of our parameterized model are based on lifecycle inventories of GHGs, regulated emissions, and energy use in transportation (GREET) []. These inventories consider emissions from the fuel cycle, including fuel production and distribution, and the vehicle cycle”

    #BEV #PHEV #ICEV #GHG

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  • Raff KarvaRaffKarva@sunny.garden
    Jul 25, 2026, 8:50 AM

    @jcrabapple

    My 15-year-old Seat Leon emits 109g CO2 per kilometre. I drive around 8,000km per year. That's roughly 872kg of CO2 annually, just under a tonne.

    A new battery electric vehicle carries a manufacturing carbon debt of somewhere between 5,500kg and 15,000kg CO2 before it turns a wheel, depending on where its battery was produced. The lower end assumes a battery made in Norway with a clean grid. The upper end assumes a battery made in a coal-heavy factory in China, which is where the majority of EV batteries are currently produced.

    At my driving rate, that means buying a new EV would need between 6 and 17 years of operation before it breaks even with simply keeping the car I already own.

    My existing car's manufacturing emissions are already spent. Scrapping a functional vehicle to replace it with a new one doesn't erase those historical emissions. It adds new ones on top.

    Spread over a few decades, replacing an EV for a newer EV every five or so years (as most people do) releases considerably more CO2 overall than driving my current diesel for twenty years.

    But here's what bothers me the most: we're being told we should buy EVs for environmental reasons, while simultaneously ignoring that modern vehicles are tracking us in perpetuity, monetising that tracking to insurance companies, data brokers, and marketers. We're being sold an environmental argument for buying surveillance.

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  • Antonio Patriarcaantopatriarca@mathstodon.xyz
    Jul 27, 2026, 9:32 AM

    @RaffKarva @jcrabapple You are clearly below the average car usage they were considering (from a fast search it is about 24000 km in the US). It would be about 2600 kg per year at that average and it would not take that long to surpass even your worse case scenario. And I suspect many Americans also have much bigger cars with much bigger emissions than your Leon. In Europe the average usage is lower but still higher than yours.
    So yes, with your usage you are probably best served with a low emission traditional car and the usage of public transportation and bikes. It doesn’t however mean everybody else is in the same situation.

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  • Raff KarvaRaffKarva@sunny.garden
    Jul 27, 2026, 4:01 PM

    @antopatriarca @jcrabapple

    A few points in reply:

    Nearly 58% of humans globally live in urban areas.

    According to the UITP (International Association of Public Transport), on average only 44% of urban daily trips globally are made by car, meaning the majority of human trips worldwide use other modes (walking, cycling, transit).

    As for driving, global urban average sits between 6,000–8,000 miles or 10,000–13,000 km per year per driver.

    Tesla Model Y has been the world's top-selling electric car in the last four years.

    Manufacturing emissions for Model Y are ~12 to 16 metric tons CO2e.

    According to Edmunds data, Tesla owners keep their cars for less than 2.5 years on average. An average EV is sold after 6 years.

    Thus, globally, majority of humans drive 44% of time, Tesla Model Y is the most popular EV, which is replaced on average every 2.5 years, releasing, on average, 48 – 64 metric tonnes of CO2 per decade. An average EV replaced on average every six years, 22 tonnes per decade, just manufacturing.

    In 2010, an average ICE hatchback released 140g CO2 per km. At an average 10–13,000 km per year, that's 1.4 to 1.8 metric tonnes of CO2 per year or 14-18 tonnes in a decade, 4x less than an average Tesla owner and 60% of an average EV owner.

    It's human behaviour that needs to change, not the vehicle. We should drive less, and when we do, we should buy small 15-years-old hatchbacks, not swap EVs for brand new models every 2.5-6 years.

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  • Antonio Patriarcaantopatriarca@mathstodon.xyz
    Jul 27, 2026, 5:49 PM

    @RaffKarva @jcrabapple Every usage statistic I am finding is much bigger than yours. Are you dividing by the numbers of drivers? I don’t think it makes sense to do it to estimate how much a car consume in its lifetime. Are you limiting your analysis to people living in urban areas? Cars are often of very limited utility there and people in cities don’t own or use as many cars.

    In any case, the paper was about the US and, particularly in some states, they use cars A LOT. In most cases, public transportation or other alternatives are not possible because they do not live in urban areas with good infrastructures. I think the paper itself recognised the conclusion wasn’t true everywhere so we shouldn’t automatically generalise it to every driver. But it is certainly true there are people using the car enough to make buying an EV car the best option. And they are not rare in the US (or globally).

    Personally, I don’t have a car. I usually just use public transportation. It certainly makes no sense for me to buy any car (EV or not). But I also lived in areas where you cannot do anything without a car. And it isn’t about choice, the infrastructures are just not there.

    While many people buying a new Tesla may only own it for 2.5 years (cannot find this data either), it is actually common for cars of the category (regardless of the engine). These vehicles are often bought for doing a lot of mileage (like for taxis or business cars) and they often get new lives in the second-hand market. That counts in the total lifetime.

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  • Raff KarvaRaffKarva@sunny.garden
    Jul 27, 2026, 7:14 PM

    @antopatriarca @jcrabapple

    Yes, I limited the above figures to urban areas alone as this is where the majority of humans live, with urbanisation trend accelerating.

    Looking at the US alone, more than 80% of US-ians live in urban areas.

    Yes, I am aware that US-ians, on average, drive more than the remaining 96% of humans. I am claiming that for majority of people worldwide, driving the vehicle they already own for another two decades, even if it's an old diesel ICE, is far better for the environment then swapping EVs every few years, as is currently the case.

    As for secondhand EV's — I am yet to see a single manufacturer commit to more than 10 years of software support OR fully Open Source their old vehicles so that owners could actually own their cars.

    I do drive, most of it is long-distance. If I could, I'd choose a timeline without cars, with reliable public transport, separate cycle network, green public spaces instead of parking spots, walkable cities.

    We simply need to drive less.

    Links to my claims and figures:

    data.worldbank.org/indicator/S

    data.worldbank.org/indicator/S

    thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/a

    uitp.org/wp-content/uploads/si

    uclg-mewa.org/uploads/file/921

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  • Urban HermitUrban_Hermit@mstdn.social
    Jul 25, 2026, 4:06 PM

    @jcrabapple best thing I have read in a month.

    Between solar power (big wind and distributed panels) and electric cars, stopping a run away green house effect is entirely going to happen. No more climate despair. Your grand children will not have to play in air conditioned domes and call that "going outside".

    And it happened because really smart people continued and continue to care about efficiency - which changes the economics in favor of solutions smart people care about.

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  • Urban HermitUrban_Hermit@mstdn.social
    Jul 25, 2026, 4:16 PM

    @jcrabapple
    Expect old fossils like Donald Trump and the fossil fuel industry to scratch back, futilely, but they are going down, into the dust bin of history.

    Rich people who love "easy money" don't like efficiency. They don't like continuous improvement. Once they get comfortable, capture customers and coerce them into doing a thing, they HATE change, progress.

    They would rather spend billions on propaganda to make people lazy and defeated than support gains in efficiency.

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