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  • Raff KarvaRaffKarva@sunny.garden
    Jul 27, 2026, 4:01 PM

    @antopatriarca @jcrabapple

    A few points in reply:

    Nearly 58% of humans globally live in urban areas.

    According to the UITP (International Association of Public Transport), on average only 44% of urban daily trips globally are made by car, meaning the majority of human trips worldwide use other modes (walking, cycling, transit).

    As for driving, global urban average sits between 6,000–8,000 miles or 10,000–13,000 km per year per driver.

    Tesla Model Y has been the world's top-selling electric car in the last four years.

    Manufacturing emissions for Model Y are ~12 to 16 metric tons CO2e.

    According to Edmunds data, Tesla owners keep their cars for less than 2.5 years on average. An average EV is sold after 6 years.

    Thus, globally, majority of humans drive 44% of time, Tesla Model Y is the most popular EV, which is replaced on average every 2.5 years, releasing, on average, 48 – 64 metric tonnes of CO2 per decade. An average EV replaced on average every six years, 22 tonnes per decade, just manufacturing.

    In 2010, an average ICE hatchback released 140g CO2 per km. At an average 10–13,000 km per year, that's 1.4 to 1.8 metric tonnes of CO2 per year or 14-18 tonnes in a decade, 4x less than an average Tesla owner and 60% of an average EV owner.

    It's human behaviour that needs to change, not the vehicle. We should drive less, and when we do, we should buy small 15-years-old hatchbacks, not swap EVs for brand new models every 2.5-6 years.

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  • Antonio Patriarcaantopatriarca@mathstodon.xyz
    Jul 27, 2026, 5:49 PM

    @RaffKarva @jcrabapple Every usage statistic I am finding is much bigger than yours. Are you dividing by the numbers of drivers? I don’t think it makes sense to do it to estimate how much a car consume in its lifetime. Are you limiting your analysis to people living in urban areas? Cars are often of very limited utility there and people in cities don’t own or use as many cars.

    In any case, the paper was about the US and, particularly in some states, they use cars A LOT. In most cases, public transportation or other alternatives are not possible because they do not live in urban areas with good infrastructures. I think the paper itself recognised the conclusion wasn’t true everywhere so we shouldn’t automatically generalise it to every driver. But it is certainly true there are people using the car enough to make buying an EV car the best option. And they are not rare in the US (or globally).

    Personally, I don’t have a car. I usually just use public transportation. It certainly makes no sense for me to buy any car (EV or not). But I also lived in areas where you cannot do anything without a car. And it isn’t about choice, the infrastructures are just not there.

    While many people buying a new Tesla may only own it for 2.5 years (cannot find this data either), it is actually common for cars of the category (regardless of the engine). These vehicles are often bought for doing a lot of mileage (like for taxis or business cars) and they often get new lives in the second-hand market. That counts in the total lifetime.

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  • Raff KarvaRaffKarva@sunny.garden
    Jul 27, 2026, 7:14 PM

    @antopatriarca @jcrabapple

    Yes, I limited the above figures to urban areas alone as this is where the majority of humans live, with urbanisation trend accelerating.

    Looking at the US alone, more than 80% of US-ians live in urban areas.

    Yes, I am aware that US-ians, on average, drive more than the remaining 96% of humans. I am claiming that for majority of people worldwide, driving the vehicle they already own for another two decades, even if it's an old diesel ICE, is far better for the environment then swapping EVs every few years, as is currently the case.

    As for secondhand EV's — I am yet to see a single manufacturer commit to more than 10 years of software support OR fully Open Source their old vehicles so that owners could actually own their cars.

    I do drive, most of it is long-distance. If I could, I'd choose a timeline without cars, with reliable public transport, separate cycle network, green public spaces instead of parking spots, walkable cities.

    We simply need to drive less.

    Links to my claims and figures:

    data.worldbank.org/indicator/S

    data.worldbank.org/indicator/S

    thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/a

    uitp.org/wp-content/uploads/si

    uclg-mewa.org/uploads/file/921

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