Oct 25, 2026, 7:39 PM@vivtek I don't. If you look at the underlying economy, there is literally only AI and data centers growing. Everything else has been contracting. It can't last.
- Oct 25, 2026, 7:39 PM
Replies
- Oct 25, 2026, 7:39 PM
@vivtek but the powers that have created this situation know it as well as we do. They're passing the same dollar bill back faster and faster and faster.
Oct 25, 2026, 7:40 PM@fatsam It can't last, we agree on that. But it's lasted until OCTOBER SO FAR and that just blows my mind.
Charlie Strosscstross@wandering.shopOct 25, 2026, 7:42 PM- Oct 25, 2026, 7:42 PM
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- Charlie Strosscstross@wandering.shopOct 25, 2026, 7:49 PM
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- Oct 25, 2026, 7:53 PM
@cstross @vivtek up until about three years ago, I wrote code that ran, among other things, Investors Business Daily. Infrastructure mostly, not actual financial code, though I've done quite a lot of that over the years. But every morning up at 3 a.m. so that I could be ready when the market opened three hours later on the East Coast -- I cannot tell you how much I am enjoying being retired.
I wonder how much more clarity I would have about this if I were still doing it though.
- Oct 25, 2026, 7:54 PM
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Jonoddhack@mstdn.socialOct 25, 2026, 7:59 PM@vivtek @fatsam @cstross one reason my quality of life improved by moving to Lisbon was not having to be up at 6:30 AM California time for teleconferences.
(and also, less fascism. Not none, but considerably less. Whenever I get annoyed by the frequent public transport and government strikes, I consider the alternative and chill out.)
- Oct 25, 2026, 7:57 PM
- Charlie Strosscstross@wandering.shopOct 25, 2026, 7:58 PM
- Oct 25, 2026, 8:01 PM
@cstross @vivtek rather neither of us, I'm enjoying being retired.
I raised five children in a very expensive place. I worked for Murdoch once. Would again: it was MySpace, not something explicitly ideological. But it made me feel dirty, and I was grateful when I left.
... Then IBD was sold to Murdoch. I had to listen to the billionaire who owned my company brag about how he hadn't been bullied by the billionaire Murdoch during negotiations.
They are the most awful people.
DerivativeThoughtsDerivativeThoughts@mastodon.socialOct 26, 2026, 1:38 AM
Dec [{(:no_ai:)}]dec23k@mastodon.ieOct 26, 2026, 1:28 PM
spangherospanghero@ioc.exchangeOct 26, 2026, 3:37 PM
Σ(i³) = (Σi)²SvenGeier@mathstodon.xyzOct 26, 2026, 4:42 PM
David Gerarddavidgerard@circumstances.runOct 25, 2026, 11:06 PM- Oct 25, 2026, 11:34 PM
@davidgerard @cstross @vivtek September is historically the worst month for the stock market. October is second. I think we probably are past that bump, which makes 2027 likely.
- David Gerarddavidgerard@circumstances.runOct 26, 2026, 9:14 AM
@fatsam @cstross @vivtek the key to understanding is Dan Davies in "Lying For Money" about how frauds work: they spiral outwards, growing until they can't (if the perpetrators aren't caught first, but that doesn't apply here)
if it was market forces, the AI bubble would have gone by end 2024 (Zitron and I both gave that number)
fraud works differently. in this case it's a multipronged Enron where the imaginary book values of equity in private companies is load bearing for the holders cos they borrow against it.
it's increasingly obvious this stuff is squirrels and confetti but they can't get off this tiger
and there's *nothing* else to invest in
this is why i say stuff like "Great Depression 2"
- Charlie Strosscstross@wandering.shopOct 26, 2026, 9:19 AM
Great Depression 2 just about nails it.
I'm going to add, a LOT of oligarch money going into securing a death-grip on power at any cost, boosting fascist head-bangers, and stifling protest movements. And it's not working. Riots in France, Serbia's government just overthrown by a student protest movement in a landslide election, Bolsonaro's US-backed run failed in Brazil despite vote-rigging attempts.
It feels a lot like France, 1788, only worldwide.
- Charlie Strosscstross@wandering.shopOct 26, 2026, 9:31 AM
@davidgerard @fatsam @vivtek On France: the 1789 revolution didn't come out of nowhere: the government collapse and revolution happened in stages, over a period of years. Leading up to it there was massive stratification of wealth, persistent failure to reform the tax system, France was waging a global war at vast expense (the US war of independence was just a side-show in the war against the UK), there were massive frauds, a wealthy, corrupt idiot in charge … sounding familiar yet?
- David Gerarddavidgerard@circumstances.runOct 26, 2026, 9:45 AM
The Penguin of Eviletchedpixels@mastodon.socialOct 26, 2026, 10:34 AM@davidgerard @cstross @fatsam @vivtek The UK historically it used to take a build up of pressure and the elite would move rather than get their heads cut off. Our elites have been very good at this. They gave way on inheritance tax (and moved their assets into corporations instead), the gave way to parliament being able to over-rule the lords. They gave way to kicking hereditary peers out (as they ow most of the non hereditary ones and MPs anyway)
I fear the current lot are too stupid however.- Oct 26, 2026, 1:42 PM
@davidgerard @cstross @fatsam Yeah, I saw that disaster mitigation is no longer a thing the UK government feels is its wheelhouse - while in the US, FEMA is explicitly saying states are on their own now.
Oct 26, 2026, 11:45 AM
Kim Possible :kimoji_fire:kimlockhartga@beige.partyOct 26, 2026, 1:04 PM@cstross @davidgerard @fatsam @vivtek
And the people couldn't afford food, which was the last straw. That sounds familiar, too.
Oct 27, 2026, 6:54 AM@kimlockhartga @cstross @davidgerard @fatsam @vivtek Nods in [every country] here...
amaliaamalia22@mastodon.socialOct 27, 2026, 8:07 AM@cstross @davidgerard @fatsam @vivtek Yes, sounds very familiar.
RevPudDudleyRevPudDudley@mas.toOct 27, 2026, 3:46 PM@cstross @davidgerard @fatsam @vivtek
"L'etat, c'est moi"
JPfroztbyte@mastodon.socialOct 26, 2026, 9:54 AM@cstross @davidgerard @fatsam @vivtek this is similar to what I also record on at times - all those at the top *know* revenge is coming (this can be publicly seen as far back as when money advisors started having kit responses for the wealthy circa ~2022), and they’ve been trying to landgrab as much control as possible in a hope that they’ll be able to use it to squeeze
I don’t think that plan will work out for them, but it is going to get *nasty* for a while
- Charlie Strosscstross@wandering.shopOct 26, 2026, 9:58 AM
@froztbyte @davidgerard @fatsam @vivtek If they're really REALLY lucky the backlash in the USA will be no worse for them than FDR and the New Deal. But I doubt it, because Trump has blown way past Hoover territory at high speed and is making a run on "what if Hitler but crossed with Caligula only rabies on top". I mean, this is bat country, right?
- JPfroztbyte@mastodon.socialOct 26, 2026, 10:04 AM
@cstross @davidgerard @fatsam @vivtek Yup, and I think that when (/if?) the day comes that red voters realize just how badly they were sold up the river… oof
Chucklesceleduc@mastodon.socialOct 26, 2026, 10:15 AM@froztbyte @cstross @davidgerard @fatsam @vivtek when people feel deceived they usually take out their anger on the most vulnerable people within reach. Stay slippery, kids...
- Oct 26, 2026, 1:44 PM
@froztbyte @cstross @davidgerard @fatsam I grew up in rural Indiana. Rednecks can stay irrational far, far longer than you can stay alive.
- Oct 26, 2026, 2:04 PM
@vivtek @froztbyte @cstross @davidgerard
... yeah. I don't believe in the scenario where rednecks come to realize they've been fooled.
- Oct 26, 2026, 2:33 PM
@fatsam @froztbyte @cstross @davidgerard I did, for a while. I thought, *surely* they're going to figure it out. But they kept not figuring it out.
Some do, obviously. And boy howdy do they get pissed when they do. But redneck culture is weird about belief, especially self-destructive belief. Anybody who *needs* to see reality leaves, you see.
Churches are *built* around embracing the crazy because it'll piss off those city men. They are specifically born and raised to be marks for scams.
- Oct 26, 2026, 2:51 PM
@fatsam @froztbyte @cstross @davidgerard And Trump's unique (and only) talent is that he knows how to hook into that backdoor. His rhetorical ... talent; I refuse to call it skill ... is perfect for it. Which is fucking boggling on the face of it - rich kid from New York City, guy who's literally never held anything resembling a job, somehow managing to portray himself as the working man's avatar? With astonishing success?
I wouldn't have believed it if it were in a novel.
Steve Perrysteveperry@mstdn.socialOct 26, 2026, 3:41 PM@vivtek @fatsam @froztbyte @cstross @davidgerard
I remember an interview during the run-up to Cheeto's first election. Some guy working at a filling station, oily coverall, grease under his nails, talking about how Cheeto had his back. I couldn't believe it. You think a guy who craps in a gold toilet has your back?
- Oct 26, 2026, 4:15 PM
@steveperry @fatsam @froztbyte @cstross @davidgerard Right?
I eventually figured part of it out. I used to say that money cancels sin - but that's really just the flip side of the prosperity gospel.
Part of the (currently dominant) redneck worldview is that society is fundamentally just. If somebody suffers, they did something to deserve it, and if somebody prospers, well, you need to get right with God and understand why, because God is smiling on them.
- Oct 26, 2026, 4:16 PM
@steveperry @fatsam @froztbyte @cstross @davidgerard
How exactly they went from Johnny Cash to this is something I'm still trying to figure out.
- Oct 26, 2026, 4:30 PM
@vivtek @steveperry @froztbyte @cstross @davidgerard threading is weird on Mastodon, I get lost in it myself occasionally.
But the answer in this case is that it didn't. Me quoting Cash was a different thread.
- Oct 26, 2026, 4:34 PM
@fatsam @steveperry @froztbyte @cstross @davidgerard
Ha. No. How *Red America* went from Johnny Cash to the current state of affairs over the course of my own lifetime, is what I meant.
And they still listen to Johnny Cash! My Dad listens to Cash and votes Trump! HOW?!?
I actually kind of understand how, but I can't articulate it well. It's basically that civilization - which is womanly - is simultaneously just and unjust. The suffering Cash sings about was deserved *and* undeserved.
- Oct 26, 2026, 4:39 PM
@vivtek @steveperry @froztbyte @cstross @davidgerard
I said a while back that civilization was female. @ce_murphy, who usually understands me, wondered if I was making some fascist-adjacent point. (Which I'm not completely incapable of. I am an old white male gun owner.)
But no. Female virtues are the virtues of civilization. The fash aren't wrong when they make that argument, just evil.
Cavyherdcavyherd@wandering.shopOct 26, 2026, 4:52 PM
Ray Lee4raylee@mathstodon.xyzOct 26, 2026, 4:22 PM@vivtek I suspect the miasma of Calvinism has spread from the evangelical communities because it has a susceptible audience with the eugenicists.
- Cavyherdcavyherd@wandering.shopOct 26, 2026, 4:47 PM
@cstross @froztbyte @davidgerard @fatsam @vivtek
With a side of full-on dementia as seasoning....
Oct 26, 2026, 5:29 PM@cstross @froztbyte @davidgerard @fatsam @vivtek "what if Hitler but crossed with Caligula only rabies on top
You forgot "... in Ku Klux Klan robes".
HighlandLawyerHighlandLawyer@mastodon.socialOct 26, 2026, 10:51 AM@cstross @davidgerard @fatsam @vivtek
I'd say more like 1840s Europe on the popular action - mass movements for political reform, democracy, & social justice. With the 1930s respin by the ruling classes.1660s, 1750s, 1840s, 1930s, 2020s...
Jochen Lillichgeewiz@mstdn.socialOct 26, 2026, 11:33 AM@cstross aka The Great Fuckoffening https://youtu.be/liFwE-PTqno?si=_7hI6a6LtEyRPGxS
redsakanaredsakana@infosec.exchangeOct 26, 2026, 10:04 AM@davidgerard Here's some peak nothing-else-to-invest-in news: "California’s $640bn pension giant [Calpers] is pivoting away from big US tech companies [Mag7] and boosting its exposure to private equity, underscoring concerns that the AI rally that has powered Wall Street to record peaks is running out of steam." 🤡 (from https://www.ft.com/content/e842173f-6f9f-4115-9e5f-a0f06f0df18d) @fatsam @cstross @vivtek
Tidestides@kokoro.gardenOct 26, 2026, 2:19 PM@davidgerard @fatsam @cstross @vivtek is that what's gonna happen in a couple years? Curious because I want to know what's the deal with revolution.
- Charlie Strosscstross@wandering.shopOct 26, 2026, 2:35 PM
@tides @davidgerard @fatsam @vivtek Trust me, you do NOT want to know what’s the deal with revolution from first-hand experience. You REALLY don’t. (Nine times out of ten they end up creating pyramids of skulls, then a new despotism takes over and the survivors breathe a sigh of relief before they realize things are even worse than they were before.)
- Tidestides@kokoro.gardenOct 26, 2026, 2:37 PM
@cstross @davidgerard @fatsam @vivtek yeah I just think we might be fucked to shittiness and fascism either way.
- David Gerarddavidgerard@circumstances.runOct 26, 2026, 2:39 PM
- Oct 26, 2026, 2:42 PM
@davidgerard @tides @cstross @vivtek it's like the people who fantasize about the French Terror have never read a fucking word about it. Look up what happened to Robespierre and his brother, I suggest.
They never do.