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  • Oct 16, 2026, 2:38 PM

    @ProPublica

    One can do some Bayesian statistics on this.

    Assume, at the start, that the DOJ's probability of success \(p\) is any random number between 0% and 100%. (We are being charitably ignorant here.)

    After observing 0 wins and 26 losses, \(p\) should be a draw from the distribution below, heavily weighted toward 0%, with a median of 2.5%.

    Thought question: what sort of attorney forges ahead with cases that demonstrably have about 2.5% chance of success?

    Details:

    someweekendreading.blog/DoJ-0-

    Bayesian posterior distribution for the DOJ chance of success, after observing 0 wins and 26 losses.  The median is 2.5% chance of success going forward.
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  • Oct 17, 2026, 11:29 AM

    @ProPublica Trump alternate intent is that the 26 states who won court rulings blocking Trump's order gives Trump power to deny the elections results from those states despite it's not his right, power or call. The USPS Postmaster General David Steiner has said he'll impose restrictions on ballots for those states, some of which are all-mail-in voting states, in defiance of court rulings.

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