Oct 17, 2026, 3:00 PMRussia just performed another orbital manœuvre to get even closer to an ICEYE Synthetic Aperture Radar satellite used by Ukraine.
Bart Hendrickx: “In the past two days or so, Cosmos-2612 has made a further orbit adjustment which has now brought it in the immediate vicinity of the ICEYE satellite.
According to the latest TLE sets, the Russian satellite is now just about 1.5 km from ICEYE and getting closer.”
https://www.satobs.org/seesat/Oct-2026/0055.html
Oct 17, 2026, 3:03 PM@fj Do we know what Cosmos-2612 is? A quick googling isn’t helping
Oct 17, 2026, 3:05 PM@fj “2020 incident where Cosmos-2543 released an object traveling approximately 186 m/s relative to its parent satellite.”
@schwa @fj According to https://voennoedelo.com/en/posts/id21045-russian-kosmos-2612-satellite-nears-iceye-x-36-orbit it and its brethren are space-warfare satellites. I hope Russia understands that physically attacking the ICEYE satellite would be an act of war against Finland and the US.
Oct 17, 2026, 3:28 PMOct 17, 2026, 3:39 PM
@fj I keep getting asked what would the domino (cascade of collisions) look like with so many satellites lacking shared authority. haven't seen anyone publish much on it lately
@flyingpenguin @fj This question is one I think @sundogplanets will know about. She more often has reported on debris and drawbacks of such large concentrations of satellites.
@cobalt123 @fj @sundogplanets thanks. I think I'll publish a brief on it to follow up No.9
https://gebruder.ottenheimer.app/briefs/picture-and-gate.html
@cobalt123 @fj @sundogplanets here you go: Why collision models built on accidents leave out the operator who aims
https://gebruder.ottenheimer.app/briefs/hostile-cascade.html
Oct 17, 2026, 3:20 PM@fj Read the original article. "Now What: Cosmos 2612 trails ICEYE X36 by ~475km. That it is now virtually co-planar is the primary concern. After matching X36’s orbital plane, closing the in-track gap can be done quickly and requires little fuel. As things stand now, Cosmos 2612 is ~1km lower than ICEYE X36 and slowly catching up."
Orbital mechanics are much more complex than navigating on the surface of the earth.
In its war on Ukraine, Russia seems to be pushing the world closer to #KesslerSyndrome
Oct 17, 2026, 3:49 PMLet’s hope it’s a jammer and not a kinetic interceptor.
@Benhm3 @fj if a jammer interferes with communication to coordinate collision avoidance it might as well be a kinetic interceptor. Maybe the “good” case is one that can grab hold of the target and deorbit together. That sort of thing would even have legitimate uses in bringing down old nonfunctional satellites
Oct 17, 2026, 8:05 PMWe shall see.
Jamming or even just occulting is not a a kinetic attack. Any kinetic attack on orbit now could render LEO into a shield of debris we'll never get through.
@Benhm3 @fj turning a satellite that does collision avoidance into one that doesn’t at least makes a collision more likely, and could potentially allow an attacker to use it as a projectile. The more we depend on collision avoidance maneuvering the less difference there is between preventing that and a directly kinetic attack
@Benhm3 @fj
Logic, ... war logic says it should be both.
- With just jammer, they may disrupt operation, yet sitting in some grey zone of international law, treaties, if there any, around now space war.
- Even if jammer is successful, pushing things into gentle collision, is sure in the cards, to have "what you gonna do" moment for the rest. And may be text says to not engage US military sattelites.
Space war seems to be here.
F@#$
@fj @SteveBellovin they're trying to do Moonraker but we're going to get Kessler instead
