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Prof. Sam Lawlersundogplanets@mastodon.social
Nov 4, 2026, 1:10 PM
RE: https://fosstodon.org/@AkaSci/117558319416827293
Man I really hate the reentry gambling game. An injury or death from a reentry is a very low probability dice, but if you roll a low probability dice often enough bad things are guaranteed to happen.
And Swift is one of the good ones, they tried to boost it but the rescue mission by a private satellite company failed. Satellites larger than cubesats should be required to do controlled reentries.
And better yet, fewer satellites, each with longer operating lifetimes.
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Prof. Sam Lawlersundogplanets@mastodon.social
Nov 4, 2026, 1:15 PM
Anyway... Mars, Jupiter, and the waning crescent moon were all in a beautiful parade all the way down to the horizon where super-bright Venus was rising, perfectly demonstrating where the ecliptic plane is in the morning sky while I was doing morning barn chores. (And I only saw a few satellites. Not bad.)
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AkaSci 🛰️AkaSci@fosstodon.org
Nov 4, 2026, 1:35 PM
@sundogplanets
Q - Given a certain point where reentry occurs, approximately how far down does the likely debris field extend on the ground?
https://spaceflightnow.com/tracker/
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Prof. Sam Lawlersundogplanets@mastodon.social
Nov 4, 2026, 1:40 PM
@AkaSci Yikes. I hope everyone is ok on the ground.
I think it's similar to a meteorite strewn field, it can be over an area of many km, particularly in the direction of motion. I don't know how accurate the reentry position is though - presumably the satellite has been burning up for quite a long time, probably hundreds of km, before it actually falls.
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Mike Peelmike_peel@mastodon.online
Nov 4, 2026, 6:26 PM
@sundogplanets @AkaSci not clear if it's actually down, or still in (progressively lower) orbit? https://orbitalradar.com/satellite/28485
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Prof. Sam Lawlersundogplanets@mastodon.social
Nov 4, 2026, 6:33 PM
@mike_peel @AkaSci I'd guess that this website is just propagating forward the last measured orbit. I'd trust Aerospace's data over this.
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Mike Peelmike_peel@mastodon.online
Nov 4, 2026, 7:00 PM
@sundogplanets @AkaSci agree ... but not sure what spaceflightnow was using, and it seems it's only showing ISS now. Not sure we know where exactly it has come down, if it has already?
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AkaSci 🛰️AkaSci@fosstodon.org
Nov 4, 2026, 7:04 PM
@mike_peel @sundogplanets
Yes, it came down. See post #33 in the thread.
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