"Prominent pollster Datafolha sees Lula winning, with 80% of votes counted
Prominent Brazilian polling firm Datafolha has projected Lula will win the presidential runoff race, as the official electoral commission showed the incumbent with 51.31% of the vote with 80.75% of the vote counted."
Bloomberg announces that Lula has won!!
"Lula officially declared winner of Brazilian presidential election
Brazil’s incumbent President Lula has edged past his rival Senator Bolsonaro to win an unprecedented fourth term, according to Brazil’s official election body.
Lula received 51.75% of votes with 98.76% of votes counted, while his challenger Senator Bolsonaro trailed slightly with 48.25%."
That's a seismic shift!
Celebrations across Brazil after Lula’s election victory.
OTOH, defeated presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro and his camp have yet to offer any official reaction or concession to President Lula’s officially-declared victory.
![Supporters of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on the outskirts of Brasilia, Brazil [Diego Herculano/Reuters]](https://cdn.fosstodon.org/media_attachments/files/117/504/522/932/047/279/original/7ae80dd1ba462288.png)
"Lula has told a crowd of supporters in Sao Paulo that he will aim for common ground and that his election to a fourth term as president safeguarded the country’s democracy."
“Brazil is no one’s back yard,” he said.
OTOH, sore loser Bolsonaro said he would call for the results to be annulled, citing a two-hour extension to voting given by the Supreme Court as polls closed.
![Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva delivers a speech after being re-elected, in Sao Paulo, Brazil [Brian Snyder/Reuters]](https://cdn.fosstodon.org/media_attachments/files/117/504/724/308/823/172/original/7720535320f6cb70.png)
“I would like to thank the Brazilian people for the generosity they have shown me for a long time,” said Lula in a victory speech in São Paulo. “And, in this second round, I want to thank the generosity of the Brazilian youth, who took to the streets to defend democracy.”
"Lula received 51.8 percent of the vote, versus 48.2 percent for Flávio Bolsonaro, with 99.9 percent of the ballots counted, according to official preliminary results."
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/10/25/world/brazil-election?smid=nytcore-ios-share
14/n
Serbians celebrating in Belgrade.
"In Belgrade late on Sunday, drivers in cars draped in Serbian flags honked their horns through the streets as fireworks lit up the sky and crowds flooded central squares and the area around parliament. “I feel as though I am finally living in a free country,” student Mila Martic told reporters as people raised three fingers, the Student List ballot symbol and a traditional Serbian greeting."
More photos at https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2026/10/26/photos-serbia-celebrates-as-ruling-party-loses-grip-on-power
15/n
Two maps from the NY Times shows how Lula found more than 10 million new votes after the Oct 4 election to defeat Bolsonaro.
"Almost every part of Brazil shifted to the left since the first round of voting.
Mr. Lula amassed an additional 4.6 million votes in São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro, compared with only 1.9 million additional votes for Mr. Bolsonaro."
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/10/26/world/americas/brazil-election-results-maps.html
16/n
@AkaSci Viva o Brasil!
@AkaSci They're jumping the gun (though they're likely right IMO). According to https://resultados.tse.jus.br/oficial/app/index.html#/eleicao/6258/uf/br/cargo/1/vis/nominal/resultados the difference is at the moment 20% of the votes still left to count, so in theory it still can go the other way.
@urwumpe @AkaSci From what I've been told, it's not that slim, because the sampling is not uniform. Electoral sections in the South and Southeast tend to be counted first, sections in the North and Northeast tend to be counted later. This is because the voting machines are all offline, their results media has to be carried to a more central location to be uploaded to the central computers, and the North and Northeast have greater distances and worse roads (when there are roads). 1/2
@urwumpe @AkaSci But what I've been told is that this favored Lula, and is similar to what happened in the first round: later counted votes tended towards Lula (his distance to the first place decreased as counting went on in the first round), while earlier counted votes tended towards his opponent (so he appeared to be winning initially in the second round). 2/2
@AkaSci we are all waiting for the US backed military coup.
@AkaSci Now this is a nice timeline cleanse, ta.
Oct 26, 2026, 11:19 AM@AkaSci so people went to vote if I understand correctly.
@AkaSci I cannot stress how on fire Lula’s social media team has been, we have been absolutely drowned in awesome Lula memes.
@AkaSci an extension his own party asked for, good luck daddy’s boy.
Oct 27, 2026, 6:55 PM@AkaSci Isn't Bolsanaro in jail?
@Michkov
Flavio Bolsonaro is the son of Jair Bolsonaro, who is in jail.
An earlier version of this post identified him as younger brother.