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Martin Seegermasek@infosec.exchange
Jul 2, 2026, 7:25 AM
Good news: RAM will be a non-issue soon
Bad news: This is because we will not get new boards
I got the following news from the supply chain:
All (and I mean ALL) of our PCB subcontractors have turned around and told us minimum 1 year lead time on boards now. Apparently there's no Helium or Neon so they cant make FR4
FR4 is what all boards is made from.
So who cares if you cant get RAM - there's no PCBs to put it on ...
UPDATE: I don't think helium is the problem but PE Resind (polyphenylene ether). Neon may be a problem because it is required for the UV lasers.
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Replies

Martin Seegermasek@infosec.exchange
Jul 2, 2026, 7:31 AM
They warned about this back in April: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-war-disrupts-the-circuit-board-supply-chain-raises-costs-tech-firms-2026-04-27/
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Martin Seegermasek@infosec.exchange
Jul 2, 2026, 8:21 AM
@isotopp just provided me with a flurry of links on this topic:
- https://www.allpcb.com/blog/pcb-manufacturing/the-ultimate-guide-to-fr-4-pcb-manufacturing-processes-materials-and-design-tips.html (no Helium mentioned)
- https://manufacturingdigital.com/articles/iran-war-pcb-manufacturing-is-facing-supply-shortages (impact of war on PE Resind)
- https://www.advancedsciencenews.com/understanding-the-science-behind-the-neon-shortage/ (mentions Neon)
- https://www.kinaxis.com/en/blog/what-helium-reveals-about-next-chip-shortage (more shortages on the horizon)
- https://smithweb.com/market-intelligence/helium-shortage-update-april-9-2026 (Helium risk and supply chain map)
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deBaerdeBaer@23.social
Jul 2, 2026, 7:33 AM
@masek I wonder if PCB manufacturers could switch to more modern base materials like ceramics or glass at scale when FR4 is unavailable.
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Martin Seegermasek@infosec.exchange
Jul 2, 2026, 7:34 AM
@deBaer Even if they can, that switch will take a lot of time (more than one year).
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Graham Sutherland / Polynomialgsuberland@chaos.social
Jul 2, 2026, 7:54 PM
@deBaer @masek definitely not viable. ceramic and glass are totally different beasts, incredibly difficult to produce boards with, and you're generally limited to 2 layers. they're not suitable for most designs due to fragility, cost, and other factors.
the supply chain for general purpose FR4 is actually mostly fine for now - the problem is specifically high performance laminates for high-speed / low-loss designs. the lead time on those has been 3-6 months for a while now.
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Graham Sutherland / Polynomialgsuberland@chaos.social
Jul 2, 2026, 8:01 PM
@deBaer @masek high performance resin is the main limiting factor at the moment (it's a petrochemical product), but low surface roughness copper foils have also been affected, and you generally need both of those for any PCB that's going to carry a modern high-speed signal (PCIe 4.0/5.0, DDR5, DisplayPort, HDMI, USB 3.2 Gen2, USB 4.0, Thunderbolt, 10GbE, 25G SFP+, etc.), so that's a huge range of affected products.
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Graham Sutherland / Polynomialgsuberland@chaos.social
Jul 2, 2026, 8:09 PM
@deBaer @masek the dielectric material is also not just something you can swap straight out, even if you could get the same multilayer stackups with ceramic or glass. the dielectric constants and dispersion factors are totally different so you need to resize all of your controlled impedance traces and redo all your field sims, which means a huge amount of expensive PCB redesign work. (ceramic is actually generally better than FR4 for dispersion at high freq but you still need to do the rework)
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Ryan Castellucci (they/them) :nonbinary_flag:ryanc@infosec.exchange
Jul 2, 2026, 8:03 AM
@masek well fuck
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Martin Seegermasek@infosec.exchange
Jul 2, 2026, 8:11 AM
@ryanc I am still writing onout my "How fucked are we?" article. And every time I work at it, it looks much, much worse.
It may be that we live to see the end of on-prem IT even for companies.
What the AI bros did not fuck up, the big cheeto just trumpled upon.
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Jonas Schäferjssfr@zombofant.net
Jul 3, 2026, 2:04 PM
@masek The conspiracies write themselves.
EU pushing for sovereignty, requiring local DCs and on-premise infrastructures, and all of a sudden the supply chain for exactly that runs dry.
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Justin Fitzsimmonssmn@l3ib.org
Jul 3, 2026, 8:52 PM
@masek when the article is finished, where will it be published?
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Jack Sparrowjacksparrow@mastodon.online
Jul 2, 2026, 11:21 AM
@masek why the shortage of PE Resind and/or neon then?
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Martin Seegermasek@infosec.exchange
Jul 2, 2026, 11:24 AM
@jacksparrow AFAIK war related. See the links in https://infosec.exchange/@masek/116849407544735975
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Jack Sparrowjacksparrow@mastodon.online
Jul 2, 2026, 12:21 PM
@masek Thank you!
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Ridleyridley@hachyderm.io
Jul 2, 2026, 1:50 PM
@masek Does this mean a year lead time even for small hobby PCBs? If so I guess I regret procrastinating on my keyboard project.
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Martin Seegermasek@infosec.exchange
Jul 4, 2026, 10:26 AM
@ridley It means: One year lead time for any commercial PCB project unless you can make them yourself.
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Jocelynephiliac :reclaimer:twipped@twipped.social
Jul 2, 2026, 3:55 PM
@masek I'm guessing PCB material isn't recyclable
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Suzanne Aldrich (she/her)suzannealdrich@hachyderm.io
Jul 3, 2026, 6:07 PM
@masek Wow who would have thought that completely disrupting a complex global supply chain predicated on petrochemicals would possibly affect technology & commerce?
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