Any time you ask, "Why aren't DDR manufacturers at least half way to building extra capacity already?" some reply-guy pops up with "It's not simple building a DDR5 fab". And that is the manufacturers' scheme working perfectly.
While it is monumentally expensive to build a fab, this is very much an overstatement for a number of reasons:
* The "expensive" part is mostly the R&D and large scale tuning/yield of a whole new process node. But this doesn't apply.
* The timescale involved is likewise for a whole new node and/or building in a new territory. Also doesn't apply.
* They would be well on their way to completion by now if they started back in 2024.
* Even DDR4 would be relieve some demand.
It really is every 5-10 years this keeps happening: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_industry_price_fixing
They come up with some deniable excuse why they're unable to fulfill demand, and depending on how strong global governments are at the time, they either get away with it; or pay huge fines, have their executives jailed, and then promoted to President of Samsung Europe. (Yes that is real)
Here we are with another round, and seriously, please think twice about coming to their defense.
@jripley
A lot of people who think they understand basic macroeconomics (supply and demand curves) can't grasp second-order effects, like how spending seven years and ten billion dollars on another commodity DRAM fab would make the manufacturer _less_ profitable
The new fab capacity being built now is not likely to be used to manufacture commodity DRAM, unless the AI bubble bursts first. But if the AI bubble bursts too soon, they'll abort construction of those new fabs.
