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  • Tom Morristommorris@mastodon.social
    Aug 13, 2026, 12:03 PM

    Guys who are very, very concerned that AI will kill us all also seem remarkably bad at managing other people's capital.

    If you hold yourself out to be an Einstein-level super-predictor with the most finely tuned Bayesian priors (due to years of blog comment section arguments with people who are very into cryogenics and/or 'race realism'), not setting light to billions of dollars of other people's money ought to be a fairly achievable task compared to predicting the future of humanity.

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Replies

  • Tom Morristommorris@mastodon.social
    Aug 13, 2026, 12:13 PM

    "For those of us who get the call to come along for the ride, it’ll be . . . stressful. But it will be our duty to serve the free world—and all of humanity. If we make it through and get to look back on those years, it will be the most important thing we ever did" (Leopold Aschenbrenner)

    In previous decades, these guys would have become Scientologists. They think they are the modern day version of Christopher Columbus. They're right, of course, but not in a flattering way.

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  • Tom Morristommorris@mastodon.social
    Aug 13, 2026, 12:18 PM

    At least the guys selling collateralized debt obligations filled with subprime mortgages didn't think of themselves as the next Messiah.

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  • Theodora Wardtheodoraward@mastodon.social
    Aug 13, 2026, 12:54 PM

    @tommorris idk how directly relevant this is but this post solidified this thought -- one very convenient thing about a worldview that fetishizes probability and game theory is that any call you make is technically not wrong as long as the odds you called were less than 1. you just need to tweak the parameters a bit! in fact -- force of rhetoric aside -- you accounted for this possibility! maybe your rank on the superpredictor power rankings takes a hit but you're still on the board god dammit

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  • Pete Alex Harris🦡🕸️🌲/∞🪐∫petealexharris@mastodon.scot
    Aug 13, 2026, 1:15 PM

    @tommorris

    They checked their ethical framework and gave it the thumbs up because:
    1. It's *other people's* money, and we don't know for sure those other people aren't p-zombies. They don't *feel* like they matter.
    2. Burning a trillion dollars of today's other people's money doesn't matter if it ensures a future where a quadrillion slaves in human-explored space have a dollar each.

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  • Simon EI3JDBEI3JDB@mastodon.radio
    Aug 13, 2026, 1:24 PM

    @tommorris In the current environment of hedge funds and derivatives markets dwarfing the values of real assets and labour, lighting some money on fire might be good in the long term.

    Not so much fun in the short term, mind.

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