Ok, this is a seriously interesting article on the widening disconnect between economic reality and the institutional systems meant to track and predict the future.
I predict this means the crash will be worse than expected because economic elites are telling us they don't understand reality.
The hierarchy is about to get a reckoning-with, I think.
@virtuous_sloth It makes me wonder what proportion of the oil production is being sold at the "futures" price vs at the "current" price, and who is buying/selling those futures & what other interests do they have in the price shift.
Maybe the elites all understand it just fine, both the financiers buying the futures & the oil companies selling the actual oil. Running up the "current" oil price makes it easier to justify increases in the retail price of fuel products, and profits made from that side could offset losses on futures contracts.
Or maybe the futures prices are low because no one wants to make any future commitments at all, given the unpredictability. With supply so limited & dictators in charge, there's always the chance of governments / militaries interrupting the free market & futures contracts being worthless with no product to back them up.
Or it could be totally irrational and chaotic, which is almost logical when dealing with an irrational and chaotic political situation.
@AmeliasBrain The best I can come up with is:
- current price is based on supply from a month ago (the delivery & refinement pipeline) & today's demand plus thinking about the future supply & demand. These are higher than before the war but not too high (because people aren't factoring the future correctly).
- the physical futures are the real orders for physical delivery in a month based on the ability to ship today
- the disconnected futures are further out & subject to the Trump casino