#EPSS gives us a lens into global exploit pressure.

But to further understand our vulnerability risk posture, we need to adjust that pressure through the lens of our own controls — and their measured effectiveness.

In my latest blog, I show you how to take EPSS asset-level exploit likelihoods (EPSSg) and update them with #Bayesian inference to reflect control effectiveness.

It’s a simple but powerful way to turn the Swiss cheese model from a metaphor into something measurable — a living model that evolves as new evidence arrives.

#cve #infosec

https://stephenshaffer.io/quantifying-swiss-cheese-the-bayesian-way-b2b512472d85