Toxic haze in South East Asia from fires in Indonesia
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ck1l3djr5d5do
They're trying to seed clouds and also use dry ice to split up the ash particles somehow so they can rise higher up in the atmosphere and not clump together near the surface so much.

But before we cry CLIMATE CHANGE, the attribution is actually different: these fires are intentionally started for agriculture purposes. As slash & burn to clear rain forest, or burning harvest residue on the fields:
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckreyq9re0n0o
Fires tend to get out of hand tho… 

The area burned this year so far is said to be 900,000 ha. But no comparison to past years is given.
Mark Parrington from ECMWF, Copernicus, posted a carbon emission chart for Indonesia which puts 2026 as rather far below other El Nino years, despite El Nino strength already surpassing 2015 by a lot.
https://bsky.app/profile/mparrington.bsky.social/post/3mwvdyoykh22e

Maybe that's an indication regarding the stuff that is burning this year. Lower carbon emissions >might< mean: not so much forest is burning but rather the harvest stubble on fields.
But without the number for area burned in those other Nino years, this is impossible to say.

#ClimateChange #Indonesia #ElNino #ENSO #Wildfires #rainforest #agriculture

"Interhemispheric monsoon dynamics over the past 450,000 years", Olsen et al, 2026 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-11166-3 🔒

When AMOC stops, where do we get more rain? In unpopulated regions, over the South Pacific and Indian ocean.

India and China? Say goodbye to rain.

Rainforest in South America and Congo? Bye bye.

Modelled was precip response informed by past collapses as seen in stalagmites ⚪ from the tropical Andes and from China.

#paleoClimate #AMOC #amoccollapse #speleothem #climateChange

(Man, I had to correct the numbers three times! That's maths dyslexia…)

Our busy grandma with her 8 surviving kids was married to a farmer and all kids worked on the fields in the afternoons as a matter of course.
Typical for sedentary farmers for millennia, I'd say: make a bunch of cheap farm hands who can be forced to work for board and lodging.
But due to odd inheritance laws or customs, only 1 child stayed on the farm, the other 7 children left as adults to do other stuff.
So in order to plough and weed the same number of fields, that 1 child had to either also get a bunch of cheap farmhands or increase efficiency via new technology.
In fact, the heir to our grandma's farm got 4 kids. Half that of his mother. The oldest of these 4, my cousin and heir to the farm, got 2 kids. His 3 siblings didn't procreate.

I have a feeling that the 8 kids that our grandma raised were already an unusually big number in the 1920s, even for farmers.
Her husband, the heir to that farm, had had 4 siblings. And he raised the bid to 8… 9 really, but 1 died as baby.
From 5 to 8 – could be a fluke.
He became member of a protestant sect, "Ravensberger Erweckungskirche" or somesuch.

The stunning result, that 2 Eves caused 63 new Adams and Eves within a hundred years, hinges on our grandma's 8 kids.
If she herself had only gotten 2 like her bourgeois sister-in-arms, my other grandma, the calculation would look different.

How different?
Let's say, she'd have gotten her first 3 (so my mother is among them) who planted 10 new seeds together:
One inherited the farm, made 4 babies, and then got only 2 grandkids himself.
The second one got 2 kids, dunno how many grandkids, let's say 4.
My mom got 4 kids and 4 grandkids.

So a hundred years forward from this counterfactual Eve, how many of her grandkids and great grandkids are alive today:
21.

The story of our other Eve remains unchanged:
6 grandkids + 6 great grandkids = 12.

That's 33. From two Eves a century ago, 33 seedlings are alive today.

Half of above's "factual guess" of 63. Hm. Still stunning.
Why does Germany's population shrink?
Am I missing something?

Does it actually shrink???

Good morning,
Friday November 13 already booked?

In 1960, three electrical engineers published a paper in Science, titled: “Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026.”

This article commemorates it https://www.science.org/content/article/will-world-end-next-month-science-said-so-1960

It is of course about human population growth. By 2026, ±5 years, their formula arrives at 100 billion people.

2 years after publication, my parents went forth to multiply and made 4 babies in short succession. All 4 survived into adulthood thanks to good nutrition and medical advances like antibiotics and vaccines.
But their combined offspring wasn't 16 or even 36.
As a matter of fact, our mum's fertility rate with us 4 babies was already half that of her own mum who had raised 8 surviving kids, conceived between 1925 and 1945.
Those 8 got 21 kids total, and adopted 2. Not 64 or even 128.

Back to our mum and us 4 siblings: we made only 4 new babies altogether. Not 16 or 36. Just 4.

Our other grandmother had one sister. That sister got 1 daughter who got 2 kids. Ooops. But they didn't procreate at all. Game over.
Our Grandma got 2 sons. Those got 6 kids. Ooops. Yeah, but these 6 made just 6 new babies.
A concerning growth rate: a tripling in 100 years. Tho the curve flattened.

So our two grandmas had 23+2 grandkids between them.
By now, the 2 grandmas are dead. Their 10 children are dead.
Alive today are 23+2, …and their offspring. …this is where my data input stops to be reliable. I doubt any of my cousins got more than 3 kids, most will have gotten 1 or 2. But I don't know the exact numbers of all of the 23+2.

I set out to demonstrate how impractical the Doomsday paper was. But now I am actually stunned.

A century ago, our two Eves started a chain reaction, and now , a hundred years later, 23 seeds are matured and seeded more, of which some will have also already procreated.
Oooops.

Then how on Earth can Germany's population be falling?

In 100 years, 12 died, and 23+? are alive. Let's say, the +? is really +40 as a very low guess.

In 100 years, 12 died and 63 are alive.
oops oops oops.

Some quotes from https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adz2555
I feel are particularly important.
Both, for understanding the #AMOC situation 17 to 11 million years ago (short: Ma), and for understanding the weaknesses in #EquilibriumClimateSensitivity when it is in part derived from such periods as the mid Miocene, in low CO2 ppm but high "global mean °C".

* open/close ocean throughways are "difficult to date with the precision"

Roughly coinciding changes:
* deepening of the Greenland-Scotland Ridge (GSR) [near Iceland; important location for today's AMOC down-welling]
* altered Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) gateways
* closure of the Central American Seaway (CAS), [ie Panama]
* shallowing of the Tethys Seaway [Indian Ocean to Mediterranean]
* Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) retreated substantially during the MCO

Good morning world.
Let's hope someone in the EU is already planning and building the capability of detecting and destroying solar radiation meddling equipment, SRM.
Termination shock must be avoided at all cost – so it's only prudent to avoid SRM from the get-go. 🖖🏽

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adz2555
"Ocean circulation changes rather than global warming drove temperature trends across the Miocene Climatic Optimum" by Wubben et al 2026,
They solve the riddle how the middle Miocene Global Mean Temperature could have been so much warmer at only 400 to 600 CO2 ppm. So much warmer, that is Global Mean sea surface temperature 7 to 8°C warmer than today.

It's the ocean circulations. They were vastly different 15 million years ago because the land-ocean distribution was vastly different in locations where this really matters. And thus, heat transport was vastly different too.
Low latitude sea surface temperature proxies only record a warming by 2.5°C, uncertainty ±1.5.

Near Florida and on the west Atlantic coast 200km North of Cape Hatteras, sea surface was even 1 to 4°C cooler. That's the effect of a, then still open Panama-connection to the Pacific, I guess.
While Tasmania's and Europe's North Atlantic's sea surface proxies recorded 16 to 20°C hotter water than today.
Which means to my un-learned mind that AMOC existed but totally without the wind-driven Gulfstream?
And East Antarctica was ice-free which rendered Tasmania's waters a boiling kettle?
I hope I come across a Conversation piece or similar explaining a bit more.

#PaleoClimate #Miocene #MCO #OceanHeat #ClimateChange #ClimateSensitivity

" This trajectory of climate-driven food price hikes – leading to social unrest and political decay – is not inevitable. The scientific consensus shows that the biggest opportunity we have for reducing food’s environmental impacts across many countries is increasing the amount of plants we eat and reducing meat and dairy intake.

This could help us better deal with shocks. "

By Paul Behrens 2025: https://theconversation.com/by-changing-our-diets-now-we-can-avoid-the-food-chaos-that-climate-change-is-bringing-256828

"leading to social unrest and political decay"
political decay … 📝

RE: https://climatejustice.global/@parents4future/117410654103602307

13 Minuten. Danach bist Du wach und willst Deine Aggression sportlich abbauen. Reiche macht Dich fit ! Enfittification durch fossile, korrupte Böswilligkeit in CDU CSU.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESFNc5uYFOM

Navi Pillay was awarded the #Nobelprize for Peace.
She is currently at a 3-day conference in Nuremberg about the Nuremberg Principles with talks from experts on international criminal law.

Today, she's not sitting on the panel herself. But a few minutes after the news spread in the audience,
she comes into the room and says into a mic "I hope, this is not a joke!"

Here, 1h after the start of the live stream :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZSeOnLSh10

On Wednesday, she did sit on the panel herself and was also interviewed by Tilo Jung, German video journalist.
That video isn't online yet but the Nuremberg Principles Academy will put everything up on their YT channel they write: https://www.nurembergacademy.org/public-discourse/events/detail/1470-nuremberg-forum-2026

Navi Pillay last year concluded the investigation into Israel's genocide in Gaza. This year she's working on a case against Myanmar.

#genocide #gaza #israel #palestine

Of the 13,000 viewers surveyed,"…93% said the public was not being fully informed about the climate crisis and nature loss.
89% of people said the government should respond to the crisis with emergency-level mobilisation, similar to the Covid-19 pandemic or the second world war."

Itemised rations 🖖
In our societies, itemised rationing to reduce unnecessary production and consumption can cull day-to-day CO2 emissions by 30-40% immediately. A drop in methane emissions by a third is possible too, as well as reduction in NO2.
Our rationing here also impacts far-away-societies and their GHG output. To prevent societal upheaval from sudden job losses, itemised rationing can be adopted there too.

The freed-up manpower from company shutdowns helps to speed up climate and ecological projects which would otherwise take too long.

A period of 15 years of planned war-time-like economy and itemised rations , like the Brits did it 1939-1956, saves civilisation.
And in that time, we can cut all dependencies to harmful misorganisation in our society and debate how to go forward in a permanent system change. Such a liberation is impossible from within the running system.

Sounds doable? Yeah, it's historically proven to work !!!!

Talk about it. Spread the word. Repeatedly.
Everybody should know how relatively easy it is to save civilisation, I think.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/oct/08/britons-kept-in-dark-scale-of-climate-crisis-first-of-its-kind-emergency-briefing

https://taz.de/Sachsen-Anhalt-Uebersicht-zu-allen-Personen-der-AfD--und-BSW-Fraktion/!6217643/

Cersei Lannister würde jeden um sich scharen, im Rat oder als Gold Cloak. Echt ey. War beim Lesen manchmal genervt von den intriganten Grausamkeitsorgien in GoT, aber es gibt solche Ansammlungen von Böswilligen ja wirklich, wie diese Liste in der Taz zeigt.

"Reminds me of all the de-crufting you’ve always needed to do when you install Windows. Looks like we’ve gotten to the point on macOS too, where you need to run third-party scripts on a new OS installation to gain back control of your system resources and remove unwanted crapware."

https://arstechnica.com/apple/2026/10/command-line-tool-quickly-removes-apple-intelligence-from-macos-27/?utm_brand=arstechnica&utm_social-type=owned&utm_source=mastodon&utm_medium=social
🤭
#MacOS

Nepal .
Sequence of events: chunk of the mountain side broke off and took the glacier on top of it with it.
Ie, not the glacier collapsed but its rock foundation did.
Expert forensics base this interpretation on the kinetic energy necessary to be registered as 5.7mag quake: https://www.science.org/content/article/how-scientists-unraveled-cause-devastating-flood-tibet-and-nepal

A Tibetan tour guide filmed the location after the break off and NYtimes posted the video:
https://bsky.app/profile/nytimes.com/post/3mu6ncq77hc2z

I added contrast to 2 screengrabs.
It looks to me, the remaining glacier is now a roof over what looks like an entrance to a cave-like hole in the mountain side.

Meaning, the event carved out a larger rock area than the glacier lid.
And that the glacier lid remained intact as seen at the very top of the arc, and now forms an overhang, to me means, that it was already disconnected from the mountain surface. Otherwise, it would have stayed glued to the mountain when that fell into the valley.

Disconnected from the mountain – despite gravity? Did the ice melt from below? Maybe by means of a river of meltwater that ran /runs between ice and mountain surface. And maybe, a heavy rain event during the preceding month helped increase the river flow.

Which in turn also means: the rock breaking lose was the first step in the drama caused by Exxon's lies and deceit. It truly wasn't a glacier collapse. It was a mountain collapse. Like the scientists say in the article on Science-org.

I find this cave-like carve-out remarkable. And I guess: it's due to permafrost thaw, maybe with help from a heavy rain event in the preceding month.

#Nepal #climateChange #permafrost

On glacial lake outbursts from 2025 https://risingnepaldaily.com/news/65374
Begins with a list of then-recent events in Nepal. July 7 2025 also swept away the bridge before the big border building Nepal/Tibet we saw getting buried on Wednesday.
Then it summarises recent research.

But Wednesday was a mountain fall, no glacier collapse nor a lake.

Wednesday morning at 9am, a huge chunk of the mountain broke off and crashed into the valley 1km below. It pulled with it the glacier tongue. The ice melted on the way down.

This brand new article describes how scientists came to this conclusion https://www.science.org/content/article/how-scientists-unraveled-cause-devastating-flood-tibet-and-nepal
"How scientists unraveled the cause of the devastating flood in Tibet and Nepal"
Judging form the first satellite images, they found the amount of vanished glacier ice wouldn't have been enough to cause the seismic disturbance of a 5.7mag quake.
Then a new set of images came online and made clear to the researchers that it was the mountain side that broke off. ' “The glacier just came along for the ride,” Ekström says. '

First the mountain 💣, then the glacier. That's also the sequence from Klein Nesthorn, Birch Glacier and Blatten in May 2025.
In mid May, first, a huge chunk from the mountain top broke off and fell on the Birch glacier. The sheer weight of the rock destabilised the glacier and increased its downflow speed. On May 28 2025, the glacier rushed into the Lötschtal and buried Blatten.

' Byers points a finger at the gradual thawing of high-altitude #permafrost, which binds rock and ice together. Other researchers hope to assess whether snow melted in the days leading up to the event, causing water to seep into and destabilize the rock. Furthermore, if the glacier was buttressing the mountain, any melt could have removed an important support system. “Landslides have been occurring as long as the mountains have been building,” Ekström says. But “in areas where glaciers are disappearing, these landslides are occurring more frequently.” '

Daniel Swain in his live "pop-up-session" said, he found heavy rain events before Wednesday. RAIN. On high mountains…

***
When rain water fills rock fissures , the pressure from the water works like dynamite.

My takeaway: whatever the infamous anti-alarmism delayers tell me, like, how attribution to climate were impossible? I don't believe them. Ever.

#Nepal #flood #climateChange #ClimateAttribution

Dieses Stück https://thebiggestlie.wedonthavetime.org/de erinnert mich an die Konver mit der wohlmeinenden Table- und Taz-Journalistin über ihr Interview mit einer Klima-Soziologin, die /das diese größte Lüge aller Zeiten ein weiteres mal in die Hirne der Leser kippte: wir haben zwar keine Zeit… doch wir haben Zeit für Mini-Schrittchen ohne Zieldefinition.

Ich hatte es in der Konver nicht geschafft, sie davon zu überzeugen, dass sie klimasabotierende Gehirnwäsche betreibt, indem sie das Interview abdrucken lässt: https://taz.de/Soziologin-ueber-Klimakrise/!6203935/
Titel: Soziologin über Klimakrise: „Resignation ist überhaupt nicht angebracht“

Großer Tipp darin: man solle sich in seinem persönlichen Radius vernetzen, auf Arbeit, in der Gewerkschaft, im Sportverein, in der Kleingartensiedlung, und gemeinsam schauen, was man drehen kann.
Fair enough.
Aber.
Jeder mit dem man sich unterhält, ist von solchen Interviews und noch viel schlimmeren Zeitungsartikeln und Talkshows dahingehend gehirngewaschen, dass CO2-Bepreisung, eCars, Erneuerbare quasi nebeneinander mit Business As Usual existieren könnten und zum Ziel führen würden.

Sich mit Leuten zu vernetzen, die dieser Lüge noch immer glauben, ist sinnlos. Weil ich persönlich es allein gar nicht schaffen KANN, den Schleier wegzureißen, um danach mit vereinten Kräften tatsächlich auf zielführendem Niveau aktiv werden zu können.

Ich KANN das nicht schaffen, so lange sogar in der wohlmeinenden Taz noch immer solche wohlmeinenden, aber dennoch klimasabotierenden Empfehlungen für ziellose Mini-Schrittchen propagiert werden.

Von Tagesschau oder Markus Lanz ganz zu schweigen…

Leute wissen überhaupt nicht, was nötig geworden ist. Weil es ihnen nicht gesagt wird.

Und deshalb werden sie mir auch nicht glauben, wenn ich mich mit ihnen vernetzen wollte. Was ich aus seelengesundheitlichen Gründen auch gar nicht anstrebe, solange wie der gesellschaftliche Konsens ist: BAU plus 🟢 würde reichen.

Daniel Swain did a pop-up office hour for the glacier Collapse and debris tsunami in Nepal https://youtube.com/live/m61bKp9NG0U
He shows footage we all might have seen already. But his online-tools and commentary make it worth watching in my opinion.
Like when he draws on screen to let us know which features he's talking about.

He's not a glaciologist, of course. But as climate scientist, his comments are valuable, esp. because they're always paired with deep empathy or sympathy and holistic understanding. No "neutral" coldness some male researchers clad themselves in.
Also his eloquence in all his live streams is beyond comparison.

No advertising disrupts the ~50min video.
Afterwards, he does a few Q&A and then moves on to California current extreme weather.

#Nepal #ClimateDesaster

It follows that societal stratification, which is really inequality, is provenly bad for survival of a community in times of scarce resources.

Best not adopt feudalism once our tech civilisation has self-terminated. #RCPcollapse
Food shortages from climate change, such times aren't kind to kingdoms. They and their populations disappear in gruesome massacres. Especially when it hits whole regions and no other region can chip in to help out. 🖖🏽

I think, Davids Graeber and Wengrow in their book The Dawn Of Everything describe societies which dealt differently with times of scarce resources?
Must read it again. Forgot everything since I read it 2022. 🙈

I love reading this stuff about how Europe's or Mediterranean societies evolved. "When the First Farmers Arrived in Europe, Inequality Evolved" :
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/when-the-first-farmers-arrived-in-europe-inequality-evolved/

It's an interesting long read how farmers from the Middle East gradually settled in the hunter-gatherer areas in central and western Europe.
5700 years ago, Michelsberg near Frankfurt, Germany, peaked its farmer population. Agricultural surplus generation had already lead to a stratified, hierarchical society. Descendants of former hunter-gatherers (tall, strong, dark haired, blue eyes) had been enslaved.
Then all of a sudden 5500 years ago, village populations started to massacre one another.
And here's where the article or the archaeological research could benefit from looking at climate factors – which they apparently don't, or the (really cool) article would surely mention climate, no?

5700 years ago is AD_-3750__BP_5700 on the x-axis, in the very center of the chart.

The blue line is Greenland temperature (proxy). Slow decline follows Milankovic cycles.
The magenta line is sulfur injections from volcanic eruptions.
The horizontal magenta line (mean sulfur Tg) incidentally also denotes the stratospheric sulfur injection by Pinatubo's eruption in 1991, about 5 Tg.

That Michelberg's population peaked around 5700 years ago then wasn't a symptom of flourishing agriculture but a result of famines caused by the many huge eruptions in short succession just before that time. When far-away farmers abandoned their drought-stricken, snow covered fields to flee to the trading hub Michelsberg.
Much like the sudden urbanisation following the drought in Syria 20 years ago wasn't a symptom of a flourishing society but a reaction to climate change. A bad period.

This my hypothesis also suggests that the societal stratification gleaned from burial practices in 5700 BP also wasn't a symptom of a well-off society with lotsa surplus in agricultural output – but a symptom of resource shortages caused by the many volcanic eruptions.
Strongmen gathered thugs around them, ruled over scarce resources and enslaved foreigners like the descendants of the hunter-gatherers.

Michelsberg's total abandonment by 5500 BP comes 50 years after Greenland's temperature line shows a series of very low dips which very likely also occurred in Germany. Not caused by volcanism in this case. Maybe the AMOC hickupped. Dunno.
But likely bad for agriculture and other health issues like typhoid epidemics.

#archaeology #archeology #climateChange #paleoclimate #volcanoes #agriculture #EuropeHistory

Joachim Wille macht Rückblick auf 40 Jahre Umweltjournalismus bei der FR: https://www.fr.de/politik/fazit-nach-40-jahren-klimajournalismus-wir-schaffen-das-94454074.html
Er ist Bundesverdienstkreuzträger für seine Arbeit!
Wann immer ich was von ihm gelesen hab, war ich überrascht, wie psychologisch durchdacht Artikel von ihm sind.

"Der Bundestag setzte 1987 die Enquete-Kommission „Vorsorge zum Schutz der Erdatmosphäre“ ein. Für mich als Umweltjournalisten waren ihre Sitzungen und Berichte faszinierend. Klimapolitik war noch kein Kulturkampf. Abgeordnete aller Parteien saßen mit Spitzenforscher:innen zusammen und versuchten, herauszufinden, was zu tun sei. Die Kommission empfahl 1990, den deutschen CO2-Ausstoß bis 2005 um mindestens 30 Prozent zu senken. Die Bundesregierung unter Helmut Kohl (CDU) beschloss schließlich ein nationales Minderungsziel von 25 Prozent gegenüber dem Basisjahr 1990. Deutschland verstand sich als klimapolitischer Vorreiter."

Und -15% wurden bis 2005 dann realisiert. Wobei die De-industrialisierung des Ostens dank neoliberaler Politik wohl den größten Batzen ausgemacht hat.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co2?stackMode=relative&time=1990..2023&country=European+Union+%2828%29~LUX~NOR~DEU~NLD&Gas+or+warming=CO%E2%82%82&Accounting=Consumption-based&Count=Per+capita&Relative+to+world+total=false

#klimajournalismus