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AkaSci 🛰️AkaSci@fosstodon.org
Oct 17, 2026, 6:53 PM
According to calculations by Dr Marco Langbroek, the COSMOS 2612 (aka KOSMOS 2612) and ICEYE-X36 are already with 1-2 km of each other.
By early morning tomorrow, KOSMOS 2612 might approach ICEYE-X36 to within a few meters.
"That is very worrisome. This RPO (Rendezvous and Proximity Operation) is completely non-consensual.
So I wonder and worry whether we are perhaps watching a first actual on-orbit ASAT attack in the making here."
Or perhaps a jamming exercise?
https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2026/10/kosmos-2612-and-iceye-x36-worrisome-cat.html
3/n
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Replies

AkaSci 🛰️AkaSci@fosstodon.org
Oct 17, 2026, 11:07 PM
According to this simulation at Orbital Radar, the Russian military satellite COSMOS 2612 will come within 21 m of the U.S. imaging satellite ICEYE-X36 at 10:26 UTC tomorrow 18 October 2026.
https://orbitalradar.com/satellite-maneuver-tracker
4/n
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AkaSci 🛰️AkaSci@fosstodon.org
Oct 18, 2026, 3:01 PM
Update from Dr Langbroek -
"Based on new orbital elements for both ICEYE-X36 and KOSMOS 2612, there seems to have been a close approach early on the 18th, possibly around 1:35 UTC, to within a few 100 m or possibly (much) closer. There are indications in the orbital elements for KOSMOS 2612 that it made one or more small maneuvers around that time.
No indications that ICEYE-X36 was affected/disturbed in its orbit. Affect on functionality - only users can tell us."
https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/
5/n
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AkaSci 🛰️AkaSci@fosstodon.org
Oct 19, 2026, 5:14 PM
Update: Cosmos 2612 appears to have maneuvered away from the ICEYE-X36 satellite after its close approach yesterday.
As of 7:32 UTC, their separation was ~292 km.
6/n
$Tweet by Adam Cohen @AdamCohen8 UPDATE: Cosmos 2612 appears to have raised its orbit further. This will cause it to drift further from ICEYE-X36. As of 7:32 UTC their separation was ~292 km. With no further maneuvering, we would expect the current separation to be ~386 km.\ Embedded tweet from yesterday by Adam Cohen @AdamCohen8 UPDATE: Cosmos 2612 appears to have maneuvered following a close approach with the ICEYE satellite. The latest TLEs show 2612 in a larger orbit that will drift away with no further maneuvers. https://x.com/AdamCohen8/status/2112181685492330582$
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Jean-François Mezeijfmezei@cosocial.ca
Oct 17, 2026, 10:57 PM
@AkaSci Kosmos will photobomb ICEEYE, place itself in front of a camera and present a surface containing a photo of Vlad riding horse with naked torso. :-)
If there is no contact or jamming, would photobombing the satellite by orbiting 1m below it constitute an ilegal operation?
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MayaMayabotics@tech.lgbt
Oct 18, 2026, 3:14 AM
@AkaSci Down to 18 m now, with TCA in 1h 35m.
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Ilkka TengvallikkeT@mementomori.social
Oct 18, 2026, 8:45 AM
@AkaSci I've seen this before....
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Kähisijäahon Pää-Äljypoppis@eliitin-some.fi
Oct 18, 2026, 9:00 AM
@ikkeT @AkaSci Russian satellite and ICEYE X36 will miss closely (in 1 hour). https://orbitalradar.com/conjunction/59103-68762
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Tor Lillqvisttml@mementomori.social
Oct 18, 2026, 9:23 AM
@poppis @ikkeT @AkaSci Isn't that animation grossly misleading, though? These two satellites have almost exactly the same orbital parameters. The animation makes it looks as it the have wildly different orbits and one is "shooting" towards the other.
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Kähisijäahon Pää-Äljypoppis@eliitin-some.fi
Oct 18, 2026, 12:38 PM
@tml all encounters seem to have the same visualization
@ikkeT
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MidgePhotoPhoto55@mastodon.social
Oct 18, 2026, 8:24 PM
@AkaSci #Recoil ???
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Sebastian Lassesl007@digitalcourage.social
Oct 19, 2026, 6:54 PM
@AkaSci
It is pretty scary …
https://digitalcourage.social/@sl007/117467973407214002
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Sebastian Lassesl007@digitalcourage.social
Oct 20, 2026, 3:38 AM
@AkaSci
In general, current close cross-border encounters are scary …
https://orbitalradar.com/conjunctions
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