chxchx
May 25, 2026, 5:47 PMWhat's the best summary I can give to a near 80 year old couple to convince them to stay out of the OpenAI IPO?
cc @davidgerard
Replies
May 25, 2026, 5:57 PM@chx @davidgerard If they're 80 now, they probably remember pets.com when the Web 1.0 bubble burst. And the sub-prime mortgage crash.
So just tell them that the OpenAI IPO combines the worst of both.
May 25, 2026, 6:05 PMJust ask them "Are you the greater fools? If not, pass on by. If yes, just hand your money to me for safe keeping, much less hassle that way"
linear cannonlinear@nya.socialMay 25, 2026, 6:12 PM@chx@chx.contact @davidgerard@circumstances.run first of all, Enron has nothing on what these people have done to the market.
second of all, frankly, it's a deceptively bad time to make plays of any kind as an individual in the stock market. if you're not doing this stuff for a living with the requisite amount of safety that you'll have if this is your career, you are playing with fire. not just because of the AI funding ouroborous, but also because of other major players that are doing sketchy things and pushing regulatory boundaries. just for one example see SpaceX, who has managed to get rules in the NASDAQ changed such that (as i understand) it's now going to be possible to buy in on the IPO before the valuation process properly concludes
if you have money and you want to invest it, it belongs in an index fund where someone else is managing this risk for you. going for these IPOs instead is just gambling, and you'll probably be in for less distress if you spend it on a trip to Vegas instead.- linear cannonlinear@nya.socialMay 25, 2026, 6:20 PM@chx@chx.contact @davidgerard@circumstances.run as i've told one of my own grandparents and several other older folks, if you really, really want to invest in something yourself, the better option is probably energy, especially renewables. one of the ways that the market is behaving irrationally is in its refusal to acknowledge the skyrocketing profitability of solar energy in comparison to fossil fuels. that will change at some point.
we need more energy regardless, so it's a relatively safe bet in the first place. on top of that, if these AI companies somehow do pan out, energy availability is going to be a hard bottleneck on them, and more of it is going to be in high demand.
but again, only after you have enough money in an index fund to live entirely off of by drawing no more than 3.5% per year, otherwise you're being irresponsible with your money - May 25, 2026, 6:40 PM
@chx At the valuation it claims, the only way for you to profit is if it succeeds in replacing most human jobs, collapsing the civilization that you live in, and which supports you. At which point, there will be nothing to buy with your dividends except paid OpenAI services. I hope you enjoy ChatGPT; everyone else will be too busy trying to survive the climate-pandemic-agriculture-war polycrisis to keep you company. If you buy this (or SpaceX), you may experience retaliation for it.
LightfighterLightfighter@infosec.exchangeMay 25, 2026, 7:07 PM@chx The AI life expectancy is shorter than theirs.