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  • Molly Whitemolly0xfff@hachyderm.io
    Nov 13, 2026, 4:07 PM

    Fairshake is touting a 92% win rate. But this is only because it bet on 74 nearly guaranteed wins — out of the 18 competitive seats Fairshake spent in, its candidate won just 8.

    About half of its $155 million in spending backed losers.

    The biggest loss was crypto’s unsuccessful $64 million in spending to keep Sherrod Brown out of the Senate. Brown may now chair the Senate Agriculture Committee, which oversees the CFTC: the regulator crypto has spent years trying to put in charge of itself.

    #crypto #cryptocurrency #USpolitics #USpol #CitationNeededNewsletter

    How FairShake's spending turned out: $25.1 million spent in primaries on bets that paid off there, on favorites in safe or likely seats (43 races); $508,000 spent on primary bets that paid off, in generals that haven't been called, on favorites in safe or likely seats (1 race); $29 million spent in primaries on bets that paid off there, in competitive contests or on underdogs (9 races); $27.9 million spent on primary bets that paid off, then paid off again in the general, in competitive contests or on underdogs (7 races); $10.4 million spent in general elections on bets that paid off, on favorites in safe or likely seats (31 races); $24 million spent on primary bets that paid off, then paid off again in the general, on favorites in safe or likely seats (40 races); $17.7 million spent in primaries on bets that failed there, in competitive contests or on underdogs (5 races); $592,000 spent on primary bets that paid off, then failed in the general, on favorites in safe or likely seats (2 races); $58.6 million spent in general elections on bets that failed, in competitive contests or on underdogs (3 races); $150,000 spent in general elections that haven't been called, on favorites in safe or likely seats (1 race); $13.5 million spent in general elections on bets that paid off, in competitive contests or on underdogs (1 race); $1.1 million spent on primary bets that paid off, then failed in the general, in competitive contests or on underdogs (2 races).
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