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  • Jack William Belljackwilliambell@rustedneuron.com
    Oct 10, 2026, 5:44 PM

    That said, I'm going to make a prediction. I'm not basing this on any special knowledge I have. I'm not claiming any special expertise.

    I'm just going by past experience with the current mis-Administration…

    My prediction? The Russia deal is not going to bring down diesel prices in any significant way. It will soon be clear it is, at best, a propaganda play meant to reduce the heat on the GOP before the midterms.

    Can Russia ship enough diesel to change world market prices? I doubt it.

    [contd]

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Replies

  • Jack William Belljackwilliambell@rustedneuron.com
    Oct 10, 2026, 5:49 PM

    This is all about refining and shipping capacity. Given Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries it's likely they don't have the capacity to do so. And, even if they did? That's a lot of fuel to ship and it won't be going to easy-to-reach markets like China.

    Nor is it clear the European market will drop sanctions even if the USA does. And Ukraine still has a vote with their drones.

    Of course I could be completely wrong, but I am *certain* the Orange One plans to profit off this somehow.

    [fin]

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  • Jack William Belljackwilliambell@rustedneuron.com
    Oct 10, 2026, 6:05 PM

    @cstross

    As one would do in their position. The entire world is learning an important lesson from the Iran War: You can interdict shipping with cheap drones and there's little anyone can do to stop you. Soon every pariah state and terrorist group will be climbing onto the bandwagon.

    The entire world is about to get Hormuzed…

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  • Bruno Nicolettibjn@mstdn.social
    Oct 10, 2026, 6:10 PM

    @cstross @jackwilliambell But Trump can then say “All those high prices are because Ukraine is bombing Russia and screwing up my lovely deal and that’s why diesel prices are high!”. The idiots will eat it up and he can use it as a stick to beat Ukraine.

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  • BashStKidBashStKid@mastodon.online
    Oct 10, 2026, 6:31 PM

    @cstross @jackwilliambell I would be blunter; Russia does not need to ship enough oil to affect market prices. Instead, this will allow Putin to get billions of *dollars*, which is breaking the whole point of sanctions.
    No longer does he have to accept cheap non-$ denominated sales, he can enjoy a firehose of dollars and undo years of sanctions.

    Frankly, every refinery and oil shipping port in Russia now needs to be put out of commission to stop this. Thanks, Donald.

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  • Sam Livingston-Graygeeksam@ruby.social
    Oct 10, 2026, 6:27 PM

    @jackwilliambell @cstross doesn't oil headed to Asia now have to detour around Africa, effectively cutting transport supply by more than half? I doubt *anybody* can ship enough diesel to do much for prices right now.

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  • Charlie Strosscstross@wandering.shop
    Oct 10, 2026, 6:36 PM

    @geeksam @jackwilliambell If the EU eased sanctions they'd mop up the Russian diesel supplies. But most of the EU expects to be attacked by Russia within the next six months and they're not about to ease up on Putin.

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