Btw. I'm not aware of any models suggesting a "sudden collapse" of the #AMOC. The very serious real risk is that it soon passes a point of no return (tipping point) where it becomes unstable and it shutting down over 50-100 years becomes practically unstoppable.
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/cold-blob-atlantic-ocean-amoc-current-climate-change-b3009895.html
@rahmstorf Equally very troubling: “On a personal level, I think the consequences of an AMOC collapse would be so dire that it’s not worth waiting to find out,” warns Lehner. “Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is the only known way to avoid the collapse, so from a risk reduction perspective we have enough information to take this scenario seriously.”
@rahmstorf Yeah but, you have the mere pocket change to harness mediums like sargassum and southern hemisphere salinity upwelling, to institute initial stages of ethical geoengineering, right?..
*sigh*
How much time has been wasted in minimal solves?
Hopefully you're working more closely with Dr James Hansen.
Your warning is well taken @rahmstorf.
I like the "AMOC shutdown" wording.
Here is a new #AMOC preprint which uses the "collapse" wording:
"Under conservative assumptions of Greenland ice sheet melt, the probability that collapse is already committed is 10%, rising to 80% by 2100 under worst case emissions. Under less conservative Greenland melt assumptions, probability that collapse is already committed is 23%"
Philip Bernard Holden, Jesse Abrams, Michelle Bieger, Timothy M. Lenton, Jean-Francois Mercure, Gregor Semieniuk, Simon Sharpe (2026). https://doi.org/10.31223/X5N48Q