"The question hanging over the lower courts will no longer be whether they’ll *survive* this presidency. It’ll be how they do their jobs in it."
Part II of my "One First" series on the midterms and the federal courts moves from #SCOTUS to what'll change in the *lower* courts starting next January:
Bonus 261: The Midterms and th...
I wrote about what last night means for #SCOTUS, including whether Thomas or Alito will retire during the lame duck (no); whether the Court will now moderate its behavior (it *needs* to); and the consequences for the Court and the country if the justices continue to act as if they are above it all:
261. The Midterms and the Cour...
If you're standing in line to celebrate, STAY IN LINE.
!!!
Texas skipped purple and went right to blue.
It’s that kind of night.
RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:fvzkql2aqtbk7qmqjkoo2lv2/post/3mzhnquhxrc2a
This isn’t even in my top 10 favorite results of tonight, but if it holds, well…
RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:5gy3v7opwo3bfoa7dojkfhvp/post/3mzhm24ywv22a
The Texas Legislature shamelessly created the 15th Court of Appeals to have a statewide business court staffed with Republican judges, rather than have those cases go to geographically assigned appeals courts that might also have Democrats.
Tonight, the 15th Court is getting wiped out by Democrats.
For the last 21 months, the lower federal courts have been fighting a rearguard action against the lawlessness of the Trump administration—with no support from Congress and very little from #SCOTUS.
One of tonight’s less visible consequences will be that we’ll have a Congress that has their backs.
Missouri voters have rejected HB1 (the even-more-ridiculous gerrymander that they tried to use the courts to force into existence).
This could easily end with a Democratic trifecta in Texas.
The implications of that for … everything … are staggering.
Methinks the Dan Sullivan dispute is … not going to matter.
It’s not just Talarico beating Paxton.
It’s Abbott losing.
It’s Dan Patrick losing.
It’s Mayes Middleton losing.
It’s Bo French losing.
It’s every single statewide race in Texas—including four (of the nine) seats on the Texas Supreme Court.
Holy. Shit.
When we moved to Texas in 2016, I told my friends that Texas would have a Democratic Senator before D.C. would.
It took a decade, but…
And so only in the Ninth Circuit, you can "draw" an 11-judge en banc "panel" that's not representative of the full 29-judge court.
That's what's happened here, and the only way to override it is to go to #SCOTUS (unlikely) or seek "super" en banc rehearing—which the Ninth Circuit has never granted.
The confusion here stems from *how* the Ninth Circuit sits "en banc."
Last night's ruling (putting the district court order back into effect) came through a vote by *all 29* judges to "rehear" the case "en banc."
That vote triggered the creation of an en banc "panel," which has only 11 judges.
RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:pxbfdlnk5je4d5tyqhl3gsm2/post/3mzgm5clmq22o
There are lots of reasons to be wary of Guam as a bellwether, but just in case it's useful, Moylan won by 5.9 points in 2024, so this is an 8.1-point swing across a pretty similar total number of votes.
RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:r6saz35hwwh2n4vrcuv3ylfe/post/3mzg7qbu5zm2a
Whoever came up with “nauseously optimistic” to describe where we are, all I can say is “yup.”
#ICYMI: I wrote about how the Trump administration's threats & litigation against California over claims that noncitizens are on the voter rolls perfectly illustrate the "base rate fallacy"—and the risk that we disenfranchise a large number of eligible voters in the search for a few ineligible ones:
260. Elections and the Base Ra...