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  • tietie
    Oct 1, 2026, 12:15 PM

    There is the other, more colloquial use of probability values, for non-repeatable events. It's much softer as the actual values are unverifiable, but still useful - and used all the time.

    It's for risk calculations - the prob. of bad outcome P times the impact of that outcome, give you the Risk that you are taking. Eg, is it worth carrying an umbrella given 20% chance of rain? You take the annoyance of getting wet times 0.2, and compare that against the annoyance of lugging the ☔

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  • tietie
    Oct 1, 2026, 12:24 PM

    The kicker: the impact of an AI triggered humanity destruction we is infinite. There is no coming back from extinction. We can't just take our lessons and try better on the next iteration.

    Because the impact is ~infinite, the Risk is huge,e ven for small values of the probability X. 10%, 30% or 50% are just the same for the risk calculus. Any non-trivially small X% is a bad deal we shouldn't take.

    The only argument worth making by AI proponents is that the risk added by AI is ~0.


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