The Drop Bear 2.0 :angery:dropbear@aus.social
Nov 4, 2026, 8:08 AM43 votes difference now. Dem leading. 44,000 votes remaining
Replies
- The Drop Bear 2.0 :angery:dropbear@aus.socialNov 4, 2026, 8:10 AM
@HalbHalb how are you and your spreadsheets going with Mississippi?
Chaos theoryHalbHalb@theblower.auNov 4, 2026, 1:54 PM@dropbear I did my all my calculations by hand and went county by county in Mississippi.
Took me a while, but hey, I love data!
I know they say approx 44,000 votes left to count, but when you go by county and they say 95% counted, I calculate roughly 52,000 uncounted votes.
However, even looking proportionally, if the results to date are carried through, Mississippi Senate should turn blue.
This doesn't account for any differential voting patterns though (for example in Australia, postal votes skew conservative, but I have no idea about this in the US).
Of those counties with over 2,500 votes to be counted (i.e. places to watch):
*Desoto ~2,700 votes 51.9% Dem so far
*Harrison ~3,800 votes 46.7% Dem so far
*Hinds ~7,700 votes 79.8% Dem so far
*Lee ~2,500 votes 40.2% Dem so far
*Madison ~2,300 votes 49.6% Dem so far
*Rankin ~5,100 votes 36.1% Dem so farOverall, my reckoning is that Dems should win by 1-2% 🤞
- Chaos theoryHalbHalb@theblower.auNov 5, 2026, 7:58 AM
@dropbear Updated my Mississippi senate calculations based on today's updated data.
Still have Mississippi going to Colom (D), with the final margin approx 49.1% to 48.8%.
But I haven't added any margins of error.
So very, very close.
No wonder they can't call it yet!
- The Drop Bear 2.0 :angery:dropbear@aus.socialNov 5, 2026, 8:00 AM
@HalbHalb eeeeek
- The Drop Bear 2.0 :angery:dropbear@aus.socialNov 5, 2026, 8:01 AM
@HalbHalb how much longer do we have to wait?!