Belated response here ...
"I really think what we have here is a fundamental misunderstanding of motivation between legislators, the general public, and this community."
Totally agree. I've talked to quite a few state legislators here in Washington about it, including what they're hearing from the public -- some of those thoughts in https://neuromatch.social/@jdp23/116409963177014246
Specifically on Google and AB 1043 they testified against AB 1043 in April but then actively supported it in September. It's possible they were just bowing to the inevitable ... r maybe there were changes that made it more palatable to them?
In Washington in early 2026, TechNet, NetChoice, and Chamber of Progress all opposed the age verification bills (with the caveat that these bills weren't at the OS level so the incentives are somewhat different). It was very much a strange bedfellows situation; I heard that supporters of the age verification bill were saying that I and others who opposed it were in big tech's pocket (which is pretty hilarious).
But, big tech isn't monolithic. Meta and MIcrosoft basically do their own thing, and I've heard for a while that Meta has been supporting OS and AppStore-level age verification bills. Oracle is a data broker as much as a big tech company (and data brokers support age verification bills). The Age Verification Providers association has a lot of lobbying muscle of their own. etc etc etc.