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Beggar MidasBeggarmidas@mastodon.social
Feb 18, 2025, 2:04 AM
I waffle twenty times a day between euphoria that people are FINALLY starting to catch on to the reality of our situation & what i've been saying for seven years...and despair that it may not be fast enough to mobilize enough fighters in time to avoid tremendous loss of life.
According to various studies mostly conducted in the 70's & 80's the chances of resisting a coup successfully drop from about 70% to about 40% 9-12 months in. By 18-22 months it drops again from 40% to single digits.
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Beggar MidasBeggarmidas@mastodon.social
Feb 18, 2025, 2:08 AM
...Because that's how long it takes the coup members to replace all administrative & authority roles with their own loyal people. When they go from couping the government to BEING the government.
We must organize & mobilize by, say, mid-summer to stand our best odds of taking our country back. To go much longer pushes us into risking encroach a borderline insurgency resistance. Which can go on for DECADES. Literally. Look at Ireland's example. Or Sri Lanka.
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