Measuring the time between particular drum strikes, I can work out a correction factor… the LP is playing at about 97.92% of the correct speed. If I speed up the LP (which was recorded at 48kHz) to a sample rate of 49015, it sounds spot on (if you ignore the crackles).

I'll have to see what I'm doing wrong with the bearing… clearly I didn't clean it up right or lubricate it correctly. Annoyingly, I had it right before.