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  • Denis - The COVID info guy -DenisCOVIDinfoguy@aus.social
    Oct 11, 2026, 10:05 PM

    🧵🇺🇸US Weekly COVID update: Oct 12, 2026

    🔸1 in 65 Actively Infectious
    🔸759,000 Daily Infections
    🔸5,400,000 Infections In The Past Week
    🔸137,000,000 Infections in 2026
    🔸270,000 to 1,080,000 Weekly Long COVID Cases
    🔸1,300 to 2,300 Weekly Excess Deaths

    Source: pmc19.com

    Alt text: US COVID-19 heat map dated 12 October 2026, based on CDC wastewater data, last updated 3 October. • Colour scale: Very Low (light blue), Low (green), Moderate (orange), High (red), Very High (purple). • Estimated infection prevalence: Very Low below 0.9%; Low 1.2%; Moderate 2.0%; High 2.9%; Very High above 3.5%. • At least 39 states and territories reportedly have COVID outbreaks. • Very high levels dominate much of the West, Southwest, Texas, Florida and Alaska. • High and moderate levels appear across parts of the Southeast, Northeast and Mountain West. • Many central and northern counties show low or very low levels. • CDC retroactive data corrections suggest an apparent secondary peak. • Poor wastewater monitoring may mean additional outbreaks are being missed.
    Alt text: US National COVID-19 Estimates, 12 October 2026, from the Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative (PMC) model, pmc19.com. Infections: • 1 in 65 Americans (1.5%) currently infectious. • 759,000 new infections daily. • 5.4 million infections in the past week. • 137 million infections estimated in 2026. • Average cumulative infections per person: 5.57. Estimated Long COVID cases: • From daily infections: 38,000–152,000. • From weekly infections: 270,000–1,080,000. Estimated excess deaths: • From daily infections: 180–330. • From weekly infections: 1,300–2,300. Figures are modelled estimates, not confirmed case counts.
    US COVID-19 State Prevalence Estimates, 12 October 2026, from the PMC model. Table covers 25 states and territories, showing wastewater levels, estimated active infections and exposure risks. • Highest: Florida and Hawaii, 1 in 15 infectious (6.7%). • Connecticut: 1 in 20 (5.0%). • California: 1 in 23 (4.3%). • Guam: 1 in 23 (4.3%). • Massachusetts: 1 in 26 (3.8%). • Maryland: 1 in 30 (3.4%). • Louisiana: 1 in 38 (2.6%). • Georgia: 1 in 41 (2.4%). • Lowest: Minnesota, 1 in 222 (0.5%). • Other states range from 0.7% to 2.1%. • In Florida and Hawaii, estimated chance of someone being infectious exceeds 99% in a room of 100 people. • Notes: CDC revised wastewater categories downward in August 2026. Some states have limited reporting. Data last updated 3 October. Figures are modelled estimates.
    US COVID-19 State Prevalence Estimates, 12 October 2026, from the PMC model. Table covers 25 states and territories, showing wastewater levels, estimated active infections and exposure risks. - Highest: Texas, 1 in 19 infectious (5.2%). - Puerto Rico: 1 in 21 (4.8%). - Washington: 1 in 21 (4.7%). - New Mexico: 1 in 23 (4.4%). - Nevada: 1 in 28 (3.6%). - Oregon: 1 in 30 (3.3%). - Montana: 1 in 32 (3.1%). - South Carolina: 1 in 36 (2.8%). - Virginia: 1 in 40 (2.5%). - Lowest: Nebraska, North Dakota and Oklahoma, 0.5%. - In Texas, Puerto Rico and Washington, estimated exposure risk exceeds 99% in rooms of 100 people. - CDC revised wastewater categories downward in August 2026. Some areas have limited reporting. Data updated 3 October. Figures are modelled estimates.
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