It's definitely worth saying that false accusations of rape are rare, but I feel uncomfortable about stopping there.Because if you just stop there, you get to ignore the fact that Black men in the United States are three and a half times more likely to be wrongfully convicted of sexual assault than white men. It's no news to Black people that prejudice pervades the justice system even though it's "not supposed to."

Shifting the focus away from Black men in the US, I don't know if any of the trans women in the UK have been wrongfully convicted. But the "trans women are rapists" drum that certain fascists keep irresponsibly bashing certainly does introduce that as a risk factor.

What I am nearly certain about is that trans women are more likely to be convicted (wrongfully or not) than cis men. In 2024 less than 3% of rapes reported to police in England and Wales resulted in a charge. I'd bet anything the number of trans women convicted is far higher than 3% of those accused.