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  • The Durability Curvedurabilitycurve@techhub.social
    May 13, 2026, 6:36 AM

    6/ The AVGO angle most people miss.

    Broadcom's custom ASIC (TPU, etc.) narrative creates a false competition frame. The reality: AVGO's networking silicon is in EVERY major DC buildout, not just custom ASIC deployments.

    AVGO's Q2 networking revenue was up 43% YoY. Tomahawk 5 and Jericho 3 switches are the interconnect fabric that B200s plug into.

    AVGO guides May 15. That's 5 days before NVDA. It's the best leading indicator available.

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  • The Durability Curvedurabilitycurve@techhub.social
    May 13, 2026, 6:36 AM

    7/ The one falsifier that breaks the thesis.

    If NVDA DC revenue < $72B AND AVGO networking growth decelerates AND COHR/LITE guide below consensus — all three simultaneously — the optical supply chain was building inventory on phantom demand.

    The probability: low. The optical companies don't build inventory on spec at this lead time. But if all three break, the AI infrastructure thesis needs a hard reset.

    Single falsifiers happen. Triple-convergence is the only one that matters.

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  • The Durability Curvedurabilitycurve@techhub.social
    May 13, 2026, 6:36 AM

    8/ What this means for your position.

    I can't tell you what to do. But I can tell you what I'd watch:

    • AVGO May 15: networking revenue growth rate
    • COHR/LITE: any order pushout language
    • Transformer lead time data points from utilities
    • DC construction starts (Sightline data)

    These tell you the direction BEFORE the NVDA print.

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