Aug 21, 2026, 8:04 AMNo, Eliezer is just the wannabe cult leader.
Bayes, that's that priest I was thinking of.
"Bayesian analysis" is the magic potion Eliezer started out selling.
Self-deceit with extra steps.
- Aug 21, 2026, 8:04 AM
Replies
the esoteric programmeresoteric_programmer@social.stealthy.clubAug 21, 2026, 8:05 AM@androcat @Di4na @emilymbender isn't that the statistical algorithm behind many spam filters?
- Aug 21, 2026, 8:08 AM
Yes and no.
If you are working in a statistical world where everything is numbers, you can use that sort of tool, because the things you have to plug in to make it work are also numbers.
And most importantly, you can immediately see whether it is working or not.But if you're a human, your world is made of experiences, not numbers.
And then, like deduction, it's just a fancy way of telling yourself what you want to hear.Perfect for a cult.
And yes, LLMs are based on a similar thing. Those weights are a dead giveaway.
- Aug 21, 2026, 8:22 AM
- the esoteric programmeresoteric_programmer@social.stealthy.clubAug 21, 2026, 8:24 AM
@androcat @Di4na @emilymbender O yeah, very similar concept indeed. When these algorithms were first invented, talking about the spam filters, were there people who claimed that those programs are sentient and are hallucinating and so on, or is this a recent thing LLM boosters use?
- Aug 21, 2026, 8:29 AM
I think "hallucination" may be a more recent development, but people have always anthropomorphized algorithms, so thinking it's sentient is almost a given. It's just very simple in a normal application, so it's a bit hard to make such a claim seriously.
But if you string together a network of nodes, each performing such a function, I fully expect it will be thought to be sentient by people who wish to fool themselves.
- the esoteric programmeresoteric_programmer@social.stealthy.clubAug 21, 2026, 8:32 AM
@androcat @Di4na @emilymbender interesting! I thought this is recent, especially because before, these algorithms were mostly bounded and made to solve specific classes of problems instead of being put everywhere like people do now with AI, but yeah, I suppose this isn't new when considering the ELIZA effect.
- Aug 21, 2026, 8:42 AM
There was a huuuuuuuge spat of hypemongering around some very early algorithms for approximating pattern recognition in the 1960s (?) as well.
I don't remember the name of that particular thing, but it was an electronic method for pattern recognition at a very simple level.
It's just one big splash of self-deceit after another, isn't it? - Aug 21, 2026, 8:33 AM
Essentially Bayes' theorem is often purported to be "the mechanism for induction", but obviously it is not.
Induction (in Humean non-terms, since Hume never gave it a name) is the brain function.
Bayes is just an attempt to do with formal machinery what biology does naturally.