It works!
The issue: according to Norton Utilities, the partition type was BIGDOS instead of FAT-16. Not sure why; DOS 4.01 FDISK shouldn’t have marked it as BIGDOS as far as I know. Also don’t know why that would give the XT-IDE trouble, but whatever…
Problem now is this is a 16GB CF card using only 528MB of its space, so I ordered a few other brands of 1GB card in the hopes that one of them will work.
Another thing I realized while running diagnostics: my naive 9-pin CGA to 15-pin VGA adapter cable ignores the intensity bit, so I’d need some in-between circuitry to get all the colors showing properly! (Edit: oh hey look, a circuit for almost exactly what I need: http://www.edn.com/cga-scart-adapter/)
(Edit 2: the drive will absolutely not work with this hack as-is; it would corrupt anything past 32MB due to the partition type being wrong)