Once again, there’s lots of “rational” arguments being raised on “why #Putin would attack Europe”, especially that he’s stuck in #Ukraine hopelessly.
They key misunderstanding is that Putin does not think in terms of the rational interests of the Russian state – if that were the case, he would not have annexed Crimea, let alone started a full-scale war, but would simply have been quietly counting the money from the sale of hydrocarbons.
Putin thinks solely within the framework of a world of paranoia, phobias, cognitive distortions and megalomania (“we are like Peter the Great”) that he has constructed for himself, in which an attack on NATO is entirely justified.
Let me remind you of his words, I believe from around 2024 – “we will go to heaven as martyrs, whilst they will simply croak”. This is the logic of ISIS – it may seem absurd or incomprehensible to us… but it is a fact. It drove ISIS do terrible things and ultimately lose, but this rather easy to predict perspective did not prevent them from doing them in the first place.
At the same time, #Russia, as an authoritarian state, lacks the mechanisms typical of democracies to curb a leader’s cognitive issues, because all its institutions – from the National Security Council to the Duma – are mere rubber-stamp machines for Putin’s decisions, as was perfectly evident on 21 February 2022.