The last pure heat-related summer excess of this magnitude was in 2015.

Excess mortality (65+) in Switzerland, data until June 28th, end of week 26.

As expected, unfortunately:

High excess mortality caused by the exceptional heat wave.

https://swiss.social/@dominiksteiger/116839166789119512

#Covid

Switzerland, deconvolutions until June 12th:

XFG* stays dominant. Negligible BA.3.2*.

Absolute viral load stays very low.

https://swiss.social/@dominiksteiger/116799163480971600

Linke Figur:

Kumulative Inzidenz seit Vorjahreszeitpunkt mit der Schätzung.

Rechte Figuren:

Korrelation der Zürcher Viruslast im Abwasser zu schweizweitem Abwasserdaten-Aggregat und zu Sentinella-SARS2-Nachweisen.

Vergleich zu Kalibrierungen von RKI-Grippeweb-Daten.

#Covid

Schätzung Infektionsinzidenzen für Zürich aufgrund Kalibrierung der Abwasserprävalenzen Werdhölzli, Daten bis 28. Juni 2026:

Schätzung Inzidenz: ~50.

Ca. jede 2’000. Person infiziert sich pro Woche.

https://swiss.social/@dominiksteiger/116806845128549936

Excess mortality (65+) in Switzerland, data until June 21st, end of week 25.

Taken together with the historic proportions of the heat wave and anecdotal reports from France and Germany, this does not bode well for weeks 26 and possibly 27.

Note that the data for recent weeks are extrapolated to compensate for reporting delay and therefore provisional.

https://swiss.social/@dominiksteiger/116799704014268962

Singapore epi data until week 25 2026.

Influenza wave. 32% positivity among ILI in the community. 28% of adult samples from the National Surveillance Programme for Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI) are influenza.

Polyclinic attendances so far much lower than for the Covid wave. I wonder if there is a data error. The number of ARI cases is identical to last week.

Singapore epi data until week 25 2026.

Influenza wave. 32% positivity among ILI in the community. 28% of adult samples from the National Surveillance Programme for Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI) are influenza.

Polyclinic attendances so far much lower than for the Covid wave. I wonder if there is a data error. The number of ARI cases is identical to last week.

Linke Figur:

Kumulative Inzidenz seit Vorjahreszeitpunkt mit der Schätzung.

Rechte Figuren:

Korrelation der Zürcher Viruslast im Abwasser zu schweizweitem Abwasserdaten-Aggregat und zu Sentinella-SARS2-Nachweisen.

Vergleich zu Kalibrierungen von RKI-Grippeweb-Daten.

#Covid

Schätzung Infektionsinzidenzen für Zürich aufgrund Kalibrierung der Abwasserprävalenzen Werdhölzli, Daten bis 21. Juni 2026:

Schätzung Inzidenz: ~100.

Ca. jede 1’000. Person infiziert sich pro Woche.

https://swiss.social/@dominiksteiger/116770025560189817

The current heat wave might reach or surpass the proportions of the 2003 heat wave.

https://www.srf.ch/meteo/meteo-stories/rekordhitze-dauerhitze-auf-extremniveau

Excess mortality (65+) in Switzerland, data until June 14th, end of week 24.

At baseline, in weeks 23 and 24, in the absence of heat and Covid or influenza waves.

In week 25, the current heat wave started, exacerbating in week 26. The respective data will start coming in next week. One would expect weeks 26 and possibly 27 to be bad.

https://swiss.social/@dominiksteiger/116760371596870068

#Covid

Switzerland, deconvolutions until end of May:

The resurgence of XFG* is complete.

Absolute viral load stays very low.

https://swiss.social/@dominiksteiger/116724883387183366

Cavalcanti D, de Oliveira Ferreira de Sales L, da Silva A et al.

"Evaluating the impact of two decades of USAID interventions and projecting the effects of defunding on mortality up to 2030: a retrospective impact evaluation and forecasting analysis"

The Lancet, 2025; 406, 283-294

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(25)01186-9/fulltext

Moynihan, Donald, and Rachael Zuppke. 2025.

“The Death of USAID: How Elon Musk and Donald Trump Ended America's Foreign Aid Agency.”

Public Administration and Development: 327–331.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/pad.70011

At the very low absolute viral loads, uncertainty of such deconvolutions is high. Not a smart idea, in general, to deliver 1 measurement every few months. The effect is worse at low viral load.

Context (as a reply because, inexplicably, Mastodon does not show quote posts when the post also contains pictures):

https://swiss.social/@dominiksteiger/116724883387183366

AGES has finally, after months, updated the deconvolutions for Austria:

A similar picture overall, BA.3.2* mostly gone.

Singapore epi data until week 24 2026.

Covid going down, influenza staying elevated.

Marvel at the perfect one year periodicity for the Covid waves. "Seasonality", one degree north of the equator.

Singapore epi data until week 24 2026.

Covid going down, influenza staying elevated.

Marvel at the perfect one year periodicity for the Covid waves. "Seasonality", one degree north of the equator.