main character mode www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-07-28...

To be making the argument in 2026 that immigration is a Republican leaning issue so Democrats shouldn’t campaign on it, and especially Trump’s overreach on deportations, is to be completely ignorant of the data and events of the last 18 months

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:2amnkge5a6hplfwyesmxqkfl/post/3mrxnw6rxik27

i've got a good piece on this www.gelliottmorris.com/p/meet-ameri...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:sgti3jsgu3luif24tokvth3a/post/3mrv2uehgf22m

Meet America’s new swing voter...

new data lab post about weighting and MRP models
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/adventures...

Adventures in survey weighting...

Cooked

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:ihpglfqq3dapqjmwl2ntktil/post/3mrue7ptmus2u

Also: it’s not going to work! No voter is asking for a hearing about Anthony Fauci and COVID-19 in 2026 when the war in Iran is increasing gas prices by 50%. Republicans have been pushing for this because it gets retweets from rabid MAGA users on social media. This is made-for-X governing.

Republicans are trying to make the news cycle about anything other than Donald Trump and his incredibly unpopular domestic and foreign policy agenda. That’s why they set up this Fauci hearing. And everyone is taking the bait

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:rqwm4yy3zgqvffhvg3kldvss/post/3mrs567vsec27

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:34oczqbiju7ej4nouljyzrs6/post/3mrqpfbnyad23

very important to note that the vast majority of Americans, including a large share of the president’s own voters, think he is focused too much on immigration, Iran, and enriching himself and not enough on kitchen table issues morrispredictive.com/assets/surve...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:ybuadgz4sd4bzg3tbpoi2wqg/post/3mrruc7sljc2v

morrispredictive.com/assets/surveys...

Cooked

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:ke6f766al4swdugyvmvyipuo/post/3mrpkdxtik22j

A new poll shared exclusively with Strength In Numbers finds independent candidate Seth Bodnar polling 6 points ahead of Republican Kurt Alme in a hypothetical one-on-one for Montana's Senate race, but the Democratic candidate Alani Bankhead trailing by 8.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-07-28...

To defeat Republicans, Democra...

in statistics an optimizer typically finds the minimum of a loss function so technically by optimizer-maxxing you are min-maxxing

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:4vd5wndiwpedc7fofjp2quxq/post/3mrnpywztrs22

This is why DSA candidates are really taking off now instead of eg in 2020 or 2018 www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-07-07...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:cf26plxwia7dxpm6plry3sj2/post/3mrn6fsyajs2i

Why Democratic Socialists are ...

tried to make this clear in the post but like if you have questions that would be editorially interesting to project to the district level, i can just... run it

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:sbdnltkjqzeb5qshxmi7wu2i/post/3mrn5ula5ip2w

tried to make this clear in the post but like if you have questions that would be editorially interesting to project to the district level, i can just... run it

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:sbdnltkjqzeb5qshxmi7wu2i/post/3mrn5ula5ip2w

I've updated the MRP model Strength In Numbers uses for polling at the state, district, and sub-county levels w a SOTA pipeline that predicts 50/50 states correctly in 2024 + every Senate seat in 2022. Now available to SIN Pro users and enterprise clients
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-do-vo...

What do voters in each congres...

returning for the midterms election season: the Sunday strength in numbers weekly roundup. got data to share? email us

How Democrats can win over more midterm voters
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/how-democr...

How Democrats can win over mor...

great PR for the economist tbh

can my comparative politics folks come up with any other example of the opposition party being $2m in debt when the incumbent government is ~20 points underwater on approval?

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:zetunk75tdvsmkjqkel65dcl/post/3mrkctbgzcs24